Chris
Engineer & Entrepreneur, Equity/Crypto Swing Trader, Macro & Trade Setups
Individual space stocks outside SpaceX look hard to get excited about, because a huge share of the sector's liquidity and attention increasingly seems set to concentrate in SpaceX alone. That reshapes the risk/reward of owning AST SpaceMobile, BlackSky, Firefly, Lumen, Redwire, Rocket Lab and Satellogic. x.comÂ
Other space stocks look less attractive as liquidity concentrates in SpaceX. StonkChris expects most to face a tougher long-term outlook, though some may still win; the visible flow of liquidity into one name supports that concern. x.comÂ
Virgin Galactic is vaporware that has burned retail investors, while SpaceX is a much better space play. Investors selling Virgin Galactic are not mistaking it for SpaceX; they are recognizing that difference. x.comÂ
Space stocks should all run eventually, with smaller names running more, so Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile may be the plays in the industry. SpaceX will likely bottom after its lock-ups expire and then make a long-term run, making a case for owning all three. x.comÂ
Beaten-down space stocks have drawn solid inflows since last Wednesday. The SPCL fund offers riskier pure-play exposure, while ARK's space fund is the safer play, holding names such as SpaceX, L3Harris, Kratos, Deere, Rocket Lab, AMD and Amazon. x.comÂ
SpaceX remains well above the range for building a serious long-term position, even though it will eventually be a stock long-term investors wish they had owned earlier. Young IPOs need time for price discovery, and the price paid still matters despite strong fundamentals: revenue up 92%, Starlink subscribers up 101%, AI revenue up 248%, adjusted EBITDA up 191% and about $100B of cash and securities. x.comÂ
The space-sector selloff dragged down by SPCX puts the wrong discount on AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and Redwire, because SPCX validates the investment case rather than weakening it. The space economy is projected to be one of the fastest-growing industries of the next 15 years, from $630 billion in 2026 to $1.5 trillion in 2030 and $2 trillion by 2040. The biggest opportunities arrive when good news creates the wrong reaction. x.comÂ
Redwire is now less attractive because of a combination of macro conditions, drone market dynamics, management and the opportunity cost versus other ideas. Its revenues are also just too lumpy, which outweighs the case that the space business on its own remains strong. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Space stocks such as Redwire and AST SpaceMobile have run too far on retail chasing and look like shorts into the SpaceX IPO. Government contracts are already priced in, and the stocks price years ahead while ignoring execution risk. The SpaceX IPO should absorb more liquidity as institutions sell the news, leaving retail holding the bag. AST SpaceMobile is the second-biggest space short after EchoStar; sell space stocks before IPO day, though the broader market can stay steady through July. … Show more
Rocket Lab is a better play than the SpaceX IPO, partly because of its lower launch costs. The stock offers a good entry point off its rising 50-day moving average. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile and other space stocks remain far too expensive, valuing an expectation that may never become reality. Many space stocks have crashed 50% yet still trade at 40x to 250x sales, AST at 250x, and could fall another 50% with no real value; the space economy is more science fiction than reality. @RosannaInvests argues AST is a cellular connectivity company whose carrier contracts could become recurring revenue. A 70% crash might make the risk worthwhile. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
