artisanwill
Equity & Options Trader, Analyst at The Option Cartel, MS Finance
Goldman Sachs's meager roughly 4.8% implied earnings move and past positive reactions make a relief bounce plausible after a 25% slide. Long seen as a top-tier bank, it is among its peers' worst performers this year; shares rose after 8 of its last 11 earnings reports, including a 9% jump last time that doubled the implied move. Earnings are Tuesday before the open. x.comÂ
Goldman Sachs' compressed valuation and tempered expectations improve its risk/reward. After a 20%-plus sell-off, its forward P/E is in the low-to-mid 12s, and management has cooled expectations for FICC and expenses. A positive earnings reaction Tuesday has room if equities deliver, the backlog stays healthy, or expenses are better than feared. x.comÂ
Banks' weak response to earnings despite low expectations warrants caution into the rest of Q3 reporting. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs all fell after mixed results, while the bank ETF also declined. x.comÂ
Citigroup stands out in a lagging bank sector as the only major bank in an uptrend, the only one within 5% of its 52-week high, and the one with the lowest PEG ratio among the majors. An inverse head-and-shoulders continuation pattern is in play with a $165 target. x.comÂ
Goldman's sharply higher equities-trading revenue and longer-run stock gains make the current drawdown tolerable. The division's net revenue rose 72% to $6.44 billion and drove 77% of Goldman's year-over-year net revenue increase. Despite ugly recent price action, the stock is up 18% over one year and 203% over three years. x.comÂ
US financials could lead the market into year-end if the Fed signals at the upcoming FOMC that rates will stay higher for longer, as expected. The financial sector is breaking out on the weekly chart, and banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are quietly reclaiming trend and pushing toward new highs. x.comÂ
Bank deregulation should lift all bank stocks, which explains Goldman Sachs's sharp rally. x.comÂ
Citigroup leans bearish despite a record Q2 beat because it guided to a weaker second half, with expenses set to outgrow revenue. EPS beat by about 16% on record equities trading, but the stock cannot hold its 50-day EMA and has formed a bearish flag after the post-earnings flush. Holding 131.40 would stall the move; losing it would break the flag toward 129.17, 127.08 and 123.24. x.comÂ
Morgan Stanley is the better way to play the same bullish chart setup also seen in Goldman Sachs. Morgan Stanley carries 50% less debt, has faster-growing assets under management and a stronger footprint among financial analysts. x.comÂ
Citigroup's rally looks overdone. It is not a super-premium franchise, yet the stock has tripled since 2023. CEO Jane Fraser's plan is working and the shares were far cheaper than other money-center banks for the past decade, as @RAMCOCAPITAL notes, but the market seems to be making the wrong call on whether Citi is a credit card issuer or an investment bank and broker, though that view could be mistaken. x.com x.comÂ