Yimin X
Founder of YX Insights, Ex-FX/Rates Market Maker
Goldman's sharply higher equities-trading revenue and longer-run stock gains make the current drawdown tolerable. The division's net revenue rose 72% to $6.44 billion and drove 77% of Goldman's year-over-year net revenue increase. Despite ugly recent price action, the stock is up 18% over one year and 203% over three years. x.comÂ
Goldman Sachs' compressed valuation and tempered expectations improve its risk/reward. After a 20%-plus sell-off, its forward P/E is in the low-to-mid 12s, and management has cooled expectations for FICC and expenses. A positive earnings reaction Tuesday has room if equities deliver, the backlog stays healthy, or expenses are better than feared. x.comÂ
Goldman Sachs's meager roughly 4.8% implied earnings move and past positive reactions make a relief bounce plausible after a 25% slide. Long seen as a top-tier bank, it is among its peers' worst performers this year; shares rose after 8 of its last 11 earnings reports, including a 9% jump last time that doubled the implied move. Earnings are Tuesday before the open. x.comÂ
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs face a negative multiplier effect as worries about the return on AI capital spending start to be priced into tech. After 18 months of enthusiasm about AI spending returns, CNBC Halftime panelists are now finally concerned about its ROIC. That suggests the concern is being discounted in tech prices, which hurts related areas like brokerages that the show's investment committee has embraced. x.comÂ
Goldman Sachs looks set for a major breakout and could catch up to Citigroup after banks broadly reported strong earnings. Goldman and JPMorgan are both working on weekly breakouts; Goldman's daily chart is gappy, so entries near the daily 9 EMA look better. x.comÂ
US financials could lead the market into year-end if the Fed signals at the upcoming FOMC that rates will stay higher for longer, as expected. The financial sector is breaking out on the weekly chart, and banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are quietly reclaiming trend and pushing toward new highs. x.comÂ
Private credit and major financials, including Ares, Carlyle, KKR, Blue Owl, Blackstone, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, are in the doghouse over a risk the market fears more than the Iran war. Anthropic's Dario Amodei has said something similar, and more and more companies are letting people go. x.comÂ
Citigroup's Q1 shows the trading side of bank income statements is running hot, which bears had not priced in. Equities trading revenue was $2.08B against a $1.73B estimate, and Citi is not historically the strongest desk, which bodes well for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Every tariff scare, Fed headline and geopolitical shock fed trading flow. Credit quality and loan loss reserves remain real concerns, but banks beaten up on macro fear are running stronger underneath. x.com x.comÂ
JPMorgan is buyable on pullbacks to its daily 9-period moving average ahead of an earnings run-up in early July, with financials such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Interactive Brokers and Bank of America doing great. x.comÂ
Morgan Stanley is the better way to play the same bullish chart setup also seen in Goldman Sachs. Morgan Stanley carries 50% less debt, has faster-growing assets under management and a stronger footprint among financial analysts. x.comÂ
Bank of America's Q1 shows a bank making money from market chaos, undercutting the recession pricing on large-cap financials. Revenue of $30.27 billion beat estimates by $1.64 billion, net interest income of $15.75 billion topped the $15.37 billion estimate, and equities trading of $2.83 billion beat $2.51 billion as the bank captured volatility. FICC trading missed at $3.50 billion versus $3.78 billion, the one soft spot. x.com x.comÂ
