Banks' weak response to earnings despite low expectations warrants caution into the rest of Q3 reporting. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs all fell after mixed results, while the bank ETF also declined. x.comÂ
Dan Niles
Founder & Portfolio Manager of Niles Investment Management
JPMorgan's miss on both revenue and earnings strengthens the case for avoiding bank and financial stocks. The earlier bank-index chart rollover had suggested possible profit disappointment, but the observed JPMorgan share weakness is not a near-term price forecast. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bank stocks look buyable if systematic selling is reacting to a flatter yield curve: the front end that drives earnings has barely moved. JPMorgan and Citi card spending rose 10% and 13%, and Citi and Wells Fargo reported lower credit losses. Wells expects steady margins and improving interest income as loans grow and old fixed-rate assets roll into higher yields. Funds crowded into banks before results, limiting near-term buyers. x.comÂ
JPMorgan looks remarkably cheap against nearly every other bank despite being the best of them. Its forward P/E looks to be around 13. x.comÂ
Bank negativity may be priced in for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America; stable credit and an active deal pipeline could bring relief. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are down about 14% in three months and sit 22% and 17% below their highs, respectively; Bank of America lost 13% in a month. x.comÂ
Goldman Sachs's meager roughly 4.8% implied earnings move and past positive reactions make a relief bounce plausible after a 25% slide. Long seen as a top-tier bank, it is among its peers' worst performers this year; shares rose after 8 of its last 11 earnings reports, including a 9% jump last time that doubled the implied move. Earnings are Tuesday before the open. x.comÂ
JPMorgan is buyable on pullbacks to its daily 9-period moving average ahead of an earnings run-up in early July, with financials such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Interactive Brokers and Bank of America doing great. x.comÂ
Bank of America's earnings miss extends beyond its one-time fine, so the selloff may not yet be fully priced. Investment-banking fees fell 11%; wait for fee income to stabilize before treating the drop as merely a fine scare. x.comÂ
Big banks' negative earnings reactions leave regional banks looking likely to continue lower. Regionals were a leading bear sector in many previous negative markets, including the 2025 bear market and the early-2023 regional banking crisis. x.comÂ
Citigroup leans bearish despite a record Q2 beat because it guided to a weaker second half, with expenses set to outgrow revenue. EPS beat by about 16% on record equities trading, but the stock cannot hold its 50-day EMA and has formed a bearish flag after the post-earnings flush. Holding 131.40 would stall the move; losing it would break the flag toward 129.17, 127.08 and 123.24. x.comÂ
US financials could lead the market into year-end if the Fed signals at the upcoming FOMC that rates will stay higher for longer, as expected. The financial sector is breaking out on the weekly chart, and banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are quietly reclaiming trend and pushing toward new highs. x.comÂ