Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
JPMorgan is the best fintech of all because it has built a financial fortress at an almost incomprehensible scale. It says it now moves $12 trillion a day across 60 million transactions. That machine should keep running even after Jamie Dimon retires, much as with Berkshire Hathaway. x.com x.com x.comÂ
JPMorgan is the only bank worth adding to a portfolio, mainly because of its CEO, and it just delivered a great quarter. x.comÂ
Nvidia is unbelievably undervalued, trading at a 13.91 forward P/E, below JPMorgan's 14.16, and investors should be ready for when the current thinking on the stock turns. x.comÂ
JPMorgan's miss on both revenue and earnings strengthens the case for avoiding bank and financial stocks. The earlier bank-index chart rollover had suggested possible profit disappointment, but the observed JPMorgan share weakness is not a near-term price forecast. x.com x.com x.comÂ
JPMorgan's $500 SpaceX target looks a bit absurd because banks that profited from its IPO are pretty biased. The bank raised its December 2027 target from $240, though the bullish case is understandable. x.comÂ
JPMorgan is buyable on pullbacks to its daily 9-period moving average ahead of an earnings run-up in early July, with financials such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Interactive Brokers and Bank of America doing great. x.comÂ
JPMorgan should ultimately go lower, but the near term looks less favorable for a bearish bet. Q1 metals-trading earnings are likely to be very profitable, and proposed rules easing large-bank capital requirements show regulators trying to protect big banks like JPMorgan. European financials are a safer place for the bearish view for now. x.comÂ
PNC Financial Services is cheap against its earnings, at 12x trailing and 10x next year's, while banks usually get 12x. Fair value runs $226.57 to $288.36, or 12x next year's $21.46 EPS give or take 12%, versus $219.75 now; it would be expensive above $343.29. These are valuation levels only, off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Bank stocks look buyable if systematic selling is reacting to a flatter yield curve: the front end that drives earnings has barely moved. JPMorgan and Citi card spending rose 10% and 13%, and Citi and Wells Fargo reported lower credit losses. Wells expects steady margins and improving interest income as loans grow and old fixed-rate assets roll into higher yields. Funds crowded into banks before results, limiting near-term buyers. x.comÂ
AI savings agents threaten the deposit spread behind the four largest US banks' profits. Per a Jefferies report, UK firm Riff's agent automatically moves money out of zero-interest accounts; if it scales, such balances could fall 80% and deposit margins from 190 to about 20 basis points, a hit near 80% of major UK bank profits. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup earned $69B of net interest income last quarter, over double their profits. Jefferies calls it 'when, not if'. x.com … Show more
Banks' weak response to earnings despite low expectations warrants caution into the rest of Q3 reporting. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs all fell after mixed results, while the bank ETF also declined. x.comÂ