Costco doesn't follow the stage 3 to stage 4 breakdown that pattern traders expect, because its fundamentals don't allow it and institutions are willing to pay a premium valuation for its stability. That replies to @ohiain, who notes Costco hit fresh all-time highs as institutional money rotates back toward defensive leadership. x.com 

Costco is one of the few businesses likely to keep growing around 10% for the next 10-15 years, which makes a large drawdown doubtful. It has a large growth runway outside the US and Canada, with Asia especially promising, very low membership churn, and scale economies shared with members, so it grows more efficient as it expands. An aging population also helps. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Costco stock cannot be expected to make major gains soon at 40x earnings with only low double-digit growth. The company keeps executing well, yet the stock has been flat over the last two years. x.com 

Scared money is flowing into Costco as a flight to safety, driving a box breakout. It may not be the best choice, but fearful buyers are not being selective right now. x.com 

Costco is a wonderful execution story whose business only gets better through consumer pain. Its Kirkland brand is more valuable than 90% of consumer brands today. The stock has been too expensive this cycle, and not owning it in size was a mistake; it is worth owning, though the right entry level is unclear. Sysco's moves illustrate the deeper transformation underway. x.com 

Costco still calls for patience before it becomes attractive to buy. x.com 

Costco is the preferred hedge against OpenAI's much higher valuation relative to revenue. Costco's cited $441B valuation comes with $275B revenue, versus OpenAI's $1.4T valuation and $50B revenue. x.com 

Costco could gain massive market share as AI shopping agents route spending away from Amazon. Through Meta's Muse, one household bought sporting gear from Costco and Dick's, a Frigidaire from Costco and a Target e-gift card, well over $1K that bypassed Amazon, which is blocking Muse shopping. Amazon's retail strategy needs to evolve or it could quickly become the next Sears. x.com 

Costco's premium multiple looks unsustainable, at 40 times next-twelve-month earnings with EPS growing only about 10%. Stocks with PEG ratios like that are not worth owning, as multiple cuts at former compounders such as FICO and Intuitive Surgical showed. x.com  x.com 

Costco's commitment to employees, such as covering a family's health care needs and adjusting work schedules for hard circumstances, drives a virtuous cycle. Being a good employer and corporate citizen and treating consumers honestly and fairly is rewarded with strong loyalty and financial success. x.com