Scared money is flowing into Costco as a flight to safety, driving a box breakout. It may not be the best choice, but fearful buyers are not being selective right now. x.com
DarvasBoxAI
Momentum Trader, Darvas/TheStrat Systems, 30 Years’ Experience
Costco is the preferred hedge against OpenAI's much higher valuation relative to revenue. Costco's cited $441B valuation comes with $275B revenue, versus OpenAI's $1.4T valuation and $50B revenue. x.com
Costco looks like a runner in the making after consolidating for over 70 days, backed by strong membership renewal rates and a dividend increase. The weekly 21 EMA has proven a key pivot, and a move above 1,028 would confirm the breakout. x.com x.com
Costco and Walmart's valuations have diverged from most US food and beverage stocks. Most of the group trades near 20-year valuation lows, while these two have entered a mini-bubble. x.com
Costco doesn't follow the stage 3 to stage 4 breakdown that pattern traders expect, because its fundamentals don't allow it and institutions are willing to pay a premium valuation for its stability. That replies to @ohiain, who notes Costco hit fresh all-time highs as institutional money rotates back toward defensive leadership. x.com
Costco is a wonderful execution story whose business only gets better through consumer pain. Its Kirkland brand is more valuable than 90% of consumer brands today. The stock has been too expensive this cycle, and not owning it in size was a mistake; it is worth owning, though the right entry level is unclear. Sysco's moves illustrate the deeper transformation underway. x.com
Costco stock cannot be expected to make major gains soon at 40x earnings with only low double-digit growth. The company keeps executing well, yet the stock has been flat over the last two years. x.com
Costco's demand looks strong enough to keep holding the shares. All four Costco warehouses on Oahu were massive and insanely busy, Hawaii has seven in total, and people on Molokai take boats to Maui just to load up at Costco. x.com
Consumer staples such as Costco, Walmart, Procter & Gamble, Kroger, General Mills, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo are among the names to study if hantavirus fear dominates the next 60-90 days, whether or not a lockdown happens. Markets react to perception before confirmed reality, and fear alone shifts attention, behavior and capital flows. A real pandemic is not needed; the fear narrative only has to persist long enough for capital and behavior to start shifting. x.com
Costco's slow growth in a finite market does not justify 30x earnings. It is a good model, but new members joining to buy in bulk to save money is not the strength bulls think it is. x.com
Costco is one of the few businesses likely to keep growing around 10% for the next 10-15 years, which makes a large drawdown doubtful. It has a large growth runway outside the US and Canada, with Asia especially promising, very low membership churn, and scale economies shared with members, so it grows more efficient as it expands. An aging population also helps. x.com x.com x.com