MP Materials has a massive monthly base and potentially perfect catalysts that could start its next one-to-two-year move: Thursday's earnings, its government investment and its Apple partnership, all within the rare earth theme. x.comÂ
Ted Zhang
Portfolio Manager of Turbotection at Revere Asset Management
MP Materials looks like a no-brainer at current prices because the US has no choice but to back domestic rare earth suppliers. Rare earth demand should at least double in five years, and China could cut off supply at any time, making MP a national-security hedge with a big government stake. About $1.15B of 2030 EBIT at 30x implies roughly $200 a share. With customers in chips, robotics, drones and defense, MP deserves a premium to Freeport and BHP, and it is 2+ years ahead of USA Rare Earth. … Show more
MP Materials is critical infrastructure for EVs and defense as the only US rare-earth mine and the only Western company with a complete mine-to-magnet supply chain. Revenue grew 49% year over year, it produced its first commercial magnets and cut off all sales to China. It has a $32M prepayment from Apple and over $2B of federal backing. x.comÂ
MP Materials risks repeating Molycorp's boom-and-bust history, since the deposit has been a financial disaster since its discovery, and this time may not be different. @JonahLupton argues rare earth demand could double or triple, with MP earning $1 billion-plus of EBIT by 2030, and that Molycorp's failure came over a decade ago under different management. x.com x.comÂ
MP Materials will be the top winner in the US because it is four years ahead of anybody and counts Trump as an investor, making it a buy-and-forget holding. Canaccord raised its target to $82 from $79, citing management's continued progress scaling production, and Goldman Sachs raised its target to $80 from $71. x.com x.comÂ
Rare earth and critical mineral names MP Materials, Energy Fuels, Critical Metals and United States Antimony have pulled back into a good buying zone after a big run, as attention shifts toward physical AI and robots. The Trump sons just invested in a tungsten company, and SemiAnalysis is flagging how important rare earths will be over the next few years. They remain weak short term. MP is the safest, with a government investment and its role as Apple's largest rare earths supplier. x.comÂ
MP Materials is the preferred rare earth name because it is more mature and has held up well technically through ups and downs. It needs to break above $65 to get the desired move. The whole rare earth theme is in a pullback and consolidation phase, but momentum should eventually return, and when these stocks clear their shared resistance lines, it pays to be positioned. x.comÂ
Apple is a safe haven amid AI-stock volatility and will gain momentum if it persists over the next two weeks through the midterms. New products and another defensive day bring a momentum push toward $358, then $367 in November closer. x.comÂ
MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are pulled forward by government backing and pushed by mega-cap support, setting them up to be 2026's second-biggest missed opportunity after Intel. x.comÂ
MP Materials has a lot of catching up to do after other rare-earth stocks rallied today, and its COO just bought 17k shares. x.comÂ
MP Materials' domestic rare-earth magnets must and will succeed as demand from the military, drones, space, robots, EVs and data centers grows tremendously and Chinese magnets are shut out; Trump won't take a single Chinese magnet, even if offered. The weekly chart still holds a flag tracked for almost a year, above the 30-week EMA, with RSI breaking out and MACD and slow stochastics turning up. x.com x.comÂ