Latin American equities' sell-off looks overdone as long as the underlying businesses keep growing and fundamentals remain intact. Under that condition, the drop is market noise, and MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings could offer attractive opportunities amid the panic. x.com 

Latin American names such as PagSeguro, StoneCo, MercadoLibre, dLocal, Grupo Aval and Ecopetrol could re-rate violently if the market keeps pricing them as fragile regional risk proxies while their businesses prove to be long-duration infrastructure assets. BofA is now waking up to the LatAm asset opportunity. x.com 

Emerging-market stocks are much weaker than the index suggests: excluding the top three stocks, the emerging-markets ETF is heavily down. As Scott Charts notes, Taiwan now has a bigger weight than China despite a far smaller economy, and Samsung and SK hynix together outweigh all of India. x.com 

Emerging-market equities, especially China and Latin America, are early in a multi-year rotation away from the US, with better macro, faster earnings growth and cheaper valuations. The US is taking on EM traits, including strikes amid nuclear talks, attacks on Fed independence and big deficits, yet keeps a premium. EM earnings may grow 21%-29% versus 13%-14% in the US, Brazil trades near 9x CAPE, and US institutions barely own China. The Hormuz-fueled commodity super-cycle adds to it. x.com 

South American political unpredictability keeps investors from rewarding MercadoLibre's excellent fundamentals. Today's selloff illustrates that risk, despite the strength of the business. x.com  x.com 

Colombia's election of a pro-business candidate could be a tailwind for fintech and e-commerce and for lower rates, which is bullish for dLocal, Nu Holdings, MercadoLibre and StoneCo if the new administration follows through on a more market-friendly agenda. Nubank is already expanding across Colombia and Mexico; its revenue grew from $2.2B to $3.7B in five quarters while operating expenses stayed roughly flat near $650M, showing operating leverage. x.com 

MercadoLibre's growth under Lula makes today's selloff look absurd. On a TTM basis since Q1 2023, revenue is up 206% and EPS 200%; having done so well during his term, it should be fine going forward. x.com  x.com 

Nubank, Sea Limited and MercadoLibre are all great buys now, with Bolsonaro's first-round victory in Brazil good news for Brazil-exposed names. Per @StockMarketNerd, he performed much better than polls indicated and is generally seen as the more business-friendly candidate. Emerging-market names like these also serve as hedges against the US market. x.com 

Brazilian equities look set to climb after Bolsonaro's son defeated President Lula, sparking expectations of pro-capital, pro-business policy. The Brazil ETF jumped 13% in a day, confirming on the weekly chart a breakout from a large wedge dating to 2010, then a retest and second leg higher. Don't chase it; wait for a technical pullback to enter. x.com 

MercadoLibre's business results should begin inflecting as credit portfolio growth slows now that the book has reached scale. An excellent outcome in Brazil improves the economic backdrop, and the stock sat at the technical bottom of its consolidation wedge. The economic backdrop, forward results and technicals all look very bullish. x.com  x.com