Stephen Manning
Founder of Cash Flow University, Options Education, Public Setup/Risk/Exit Reviews
Taiwan Semiconductor manufactures chips for competing AI designers, so its upside does not depend on which designer wins. Nearly every AI chip comes from the same fabs; Nvidia, AMD and custom-silicon competition all feed that business. The risk is that the whole AI race slows: 68% of revenue is tied to high-performance computing. x.comÂ
Taiwan Semiconductor wins as OpenAI, Google, Apple, Meta, AMD, Anthropic and Nvidia all make their own chips. x.comÂ
TSMC may lose pricing power as performance gains shift from shrinking transistors to stacking, interconnects and optics, while logic folding could make older processes competitive. Despite strong leading-edge demand, investors may overestimate the profit share its node leadership can retain. Its cautious expansion and past reluctance toward advanced packaging suggest a risk-averse culture that protects returns but could leave it late to disruptive technologies and key customers. x.comÂ
TSMC manufactures chips for most of the leading tech companies while Intel still struggles with its own foundry. It makes NVIDIA's GPUs, Apple's phone chips, AMD's processors and Google's TPUs, plus chips for Amazon, Microsoft and Meta. x.com x.comÂ
Google TPU adoption could broaden the AI hardware opportunity beyond Nvidia, with demand reaching custom ASICs, HBM, packaging, optics and testing. Per The Information, OpenAI reportedly plans to buy Google's TPUs and is hiring compiler engineers, but no purchase is confirmed. Broadcom, SK hynix, Samsung, Micron, TSMC, Coherent, Lumentum, FormFactor and Teradyne could benefit. x.comÂ
China's entry into chip design and fabrication is a structural change: stop fading China as Western AI chip and cloud leaders get steeply discounted. China dominates nearly every manufacturing category; with multi-patterning its DUV tools perform near newer nodes and could scale massively or reach EUV. Chinese open models co-designed for Chinese chips could pull sovereignty-minded countries onto its tech stack. As Ford fared after China joined the WTO, so may Nvidia, ASML, TSMC and AWS by 2050. … Show more
AI infrastructure bottlenecks could give eight stocks as much as 18x upside. Nvidia supplies frontier-model GPUs; Broadcom and Marvell supply custom silicon and networking; TSMC makes advanced chips; Micron supplies sold-out HBM; Vertiv provides power and cooling; Palantir monetizes enterprise AI; Alphabet spans TPUs, research, cloud and apps. The list tracks where AI infrastructure spending is flowing. x.com x.comÂ
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing has a harder moat than Nvidia. Nvidia faces AMD, Intel and custom ASICs, while TSMC faces only the laws of physics, manufacturing every Nvidia chip, custom hyperscaler ASIC and ARM server CPU. x.comÂ
TSMC is not a favorite longer term because the US administration and US companies have a stated goal of building a domestic source of silicon supply, and relationships toward that are already being forged. x.comÂ
TSMC is the single supplier the AI revolution depends on, so owning it means owning the supply chain the world follows. Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Google and Meta all rely on its fabs in Taiwan. TSMC makes up 42% of Taiwan's stock market, which at nearly $5 trillion rivals India's $4.9 trillion despite 23 million people against 1.4 billion. x.comÂ