Dutch Bros is not a bad place to start a position now. x.com 

Dutch Bros is set up to turn higher off major support. Its six-month chart is forming a tweezer bottom on record dollar volume, right off its all-time volume point of control and the record $300M dark pool print at $54.40 in January, with 2021-2022 resistance flipping to support. The monthly chart has an open inefficiency from September 2025, and last month repeated the tweezer. @TLAMB91 flags a $1.8M bull call spread targeting $63.95 by June expiry. Last month's low is the invalidation. x.com 

Dutch Bros faces intensifying competition in a coffee market with low barriers to entry, and its valuation is hard to digest even at current levels. 7 Brew, a deep-pocketed, PE-backed copycat, is expanding aggressively, and regional chains such as Summermoon, Foxtail and Lala Land are scaling across the country. Its efficient model and cult service culture leave some potential, but GLP-1 drugs and affordability and gas-price pressures add overhangs. x.com 

Dutch Bros has gotten cheaper after a long slide, now under 30x forward EPS with 35% EPS growth and 3.1x current-year sales with revenue growth around 30%. That is roughly Starbucks' price-to-sales despite 30% versus 3% revenue growth, while Cava trades at 4x sales and 69x forward EPS with 27% revenue growth and the same 35% EPS growth. Same-store sales growth remains far ahead of nearly every other company. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Dutch Bros now looks like a better and safer bet than chip stocks. x.com 

Starbucks looks expensive on an estimate-based earnings screen: 29x next year's projected earnings versus 18x for restaurant chains implies a $49.43-$62.91 fair range against $91.43. That forecast is 80% above trailing earnings; this is levels-only work based on reported estimates, not fundamental diligence. x.com 

Starbucks is a best-in-class operator in a higher-for-longer environment that will squeeze consumers and send them to the winners. April CPI rose 3.8%, hotter than expected, costing the Fed its best argument for a cut. CEO Brian Niccol delivered the first earnings beat in five quarters and a second straight quarter of traffic growth, the hardest thing to pull off when wallets are tight. x.com  x.com 

Starbucks still carries a premium valuation even as coffee competition intensifies nationwide, so betting against it is reasonable. Coffee is habitual and generates good cash returns, but barriers to entry are low: deep-pocketed, PE-backed 7 Brew and regional chains like Summermoon and Foxtail are scaling aggressively. @CreditCapi's short case adds that store closures inflated Starbucks' same-store sales growth by 483 bps and that competitor openings cut its traffic 8-10%. x.com 

Shake Shack is starting to look cheap after a sharp selloff on beef-cost and consumer worries, despite solid growth and margins. Q2 revenue grew 17.2%, restaurant-level margins reached 23% and free cash flow is positive. It owns no real estate, so it is a bet on the brand, restaurant economics and expansion across its 703 restaurants. The key question is whether those margins hold as it grows. x.com