Reddit's logged-in users drive monetization, so weak search-driven traffic matters less than ARPU. Reddit says app and logged-in users grew sequentially in Q3 and generate over 80% of monetization, though lost search referrals also hurt them. ARPU rose 53% despite barely higher users; a low ad base could allow it to double even with muted growth. Restricting Google scraping might force a licensing deal that helps its Anthropic case and OpenAI renewal, though no deal is certain. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Reddit's push toward required logins could improve targeting and monetization but may hinder search discovery and add friction for casual users. Revenue rose 53% to $895M and free cash flow reached $363M, yet overall user growth lagged despite a good showing from US logged-in users; stock-based pay was higher than desired. Google will probably pressure near-term DAU growth. The finances remain solid, but the login strategy's impact on growth needs more clarity. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Reddit's worsening US user growth threatens its revenue runway despite elite ARPU growth, revenue growth and margin expansion. US daily users fell 2% year over year and missed estimates by 7%; the Q4 guide was weak. It needs healthier user growth in its most important market to dispel Google/AI discovery fears. Forward indicators do not look promising, and the trend of positive estimate revisions will end. x.com  x.com 

Google's valuation is absurdly low for its 25%+ ROIC, net cash and accelerating earnings growth. EPS grew about 20% annually over 15 years and 30% over five; even after a 10% after-hours drop, 14x 2028 earnings is far too cheap. The stock has beaten the S&P over every relevant period because its multiple has stayed too low for its quality. Search disruption fears overlook Google's talent, as strong as any company's. x.com 

Alphabet's AI-mode ads could move the needle, giving the stock a tentative upside bias despite search uncertainty. Search supplies $39b of $41b in quarterly segment profit, but its revenue growth slowed to 12% and will likely slow to 10% in Q4. Queries remain healthy; Alphabet says AI queries are mostly additive. Cloud revenue grew 96% year over year. At 18x a slightly above-consensus 2027 GAAP EPS estimate for over 30% operating profit growth, the stock remains a tough call. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Reddit's Q3 drop in US daily users risks another poor market reaction, even if headline earnings are strong. Last quarter a slight sequential decline in US daily users sent the shares down 20% despite a massive triple beat; the new chart shows a further sequential drop in Q3. x.com  x.com 

Alphabet's core Search growth is slowing while AI spending surges, making the selloff look deserved despite fast Cloud growth. Search growth fell from 19% to 17% to 12% over three quarters; Search now represents just under half of revenue. The stock could fall to $250, though Amazon is the preferred buy. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Alphabet's AI Mode monetizes less effectively than traditional Search, potentially threatening its Search business. AI drove the fastest Search query growth in five years, yet Search revenue growth slowed to 12%; defending Search makes even greater AI investment necessary, not optional. Google Cloud grew 103% year over year to a $123 billion annual run rate. The report could not have been better for the AI infrastructure trade, but its risks are bearish for Alphabet's stock. x.com 

Google's AI Mode no longer drives traffic to Reddit, weakening its distribution. Reddit CEO Steve Huffman said Google still crawls Reddit heavily but no longer sends it the traffic it once did, and Reddit cannot count on that traffic returning. x.com 

Alphabet's Q3 search miss strengthens the concern that AI is not great for search. FinancialJuice reports Search & Other revenue of $63.35bn versus $64.85bn expected and capex of $51.36bn versus $55.78bn expected. Anthropic's third quarter also looks less than excellent on this read-through. x.com