Crude oil's safety buffer is draining at a record pace, so the next supply shock will hit a market with far less protection. The Iran war and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed over 1 billion barrels of supply, and Morgan Stanley estimates stockpiles fell about 4.8 million barrels a day from March 1 to April 25, a record. A record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves have been pledged, and inventories are near 2018 lows. Even if Hormuz reopens, restocking will add demand. … Show more

Crude oil could climb past $150 because the Strait of Hormuz closure is blocking 20 million barrels a day and Iran is more determined than Trump assumes. Oil has already gone from $70 to $120 in three weeks, gasoline is up $1 a gallon in four weeks, and fertilizer is up 43%. The Fed cannot cut and might even hike, and Goldman puts recession odds at 25% and climbing. x.com 

Oil's slide from $120 during the war to $79 should continue as the US-Iran deal, due to be signed on the 19th in Switzerland, reopens the Strait of Hormuz and ends the US naval blockade, restoring choked supply. Cheaper oil lowers US inflation and flips the market from expecting another hike toward rate cuts, lifting risk assets. The deal is only a 60-day MOU, though, and Israel is the problem: if anything blows up, oil rips and the chain runs in reverse. x.com 

Crude oil has a renewed risk premium now that the US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed. Three commercial ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, the US blamed Iran and struck back two days in a row, and President Trump said the ceasefire is over. The Treasury also pulled its waiver on Iranian oil sales from July 17, and Brent spiked as much as 7% toward $80. Each past crack in the ceasefire spiked oil and eventually calmed down, but nobody knows which time it won't. x.com 

Oil will climb and tech will get hammered, until Trump faces heat over his allies' losses and produces another we-got-a-deal headline. x.com 

Crude oil's biggest bullish catalyst has disappeared with the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Per The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump said he cancelled a US attack on Iran and that the perimeters of a deal, including a total reopening of the strait, have been agreed. x.com 

The Strait of Hormuz situation looks bad for oil supply, because Iran has the leverage to keep control of it and collect tolls. Iranian drones have changed the equation despite substantial US air and naval power, there has been no uprising, and any ground invasion would take very long. Saudi Arabia and Qatar lack the naval muscle and rely on the US, and new pipelines take years, so affected countries will have to play ball for at least a few years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crude oil is heading back above $100 after Iran announced a full shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by @Kalshi_Finance. x.com 

Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil deserves far more long interest because the war is not stopping anytime soon; Iran reportedly hit another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. x.com