Crude oil could still see a shock, possibly to $200. Per Tasnim via @HormuzLetter, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessels, including tankers, in response to US strikes, and said any ship attempting transit will be attacked. @TheShortBear notes the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 349 million barrels and is drawing about 8 million a week, leaving roughly six weeks before the 300 million level widely seen as a panic trigger. x.com  x.com 

An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.com 

Oil's slide from $120 during the war to $79 should continue as the US-Iran deal, due to be signed on the 19th in Switzerland, reopens the Strait of Hormuz and ends the US naval blockade, restoring choked supply. Cheaper oil lowers US inflation and flips the market from expecting another hike toward rate cuts, lifting risk assets. The deal is only a 60-day MOU, though, and Israel is the problem: if anything blows up, oil rips and the chain runs in reverse. x.com 

Crude oil's safety buffer is draining at a record pace, so the next supply shock will hit a market with far less protection. The Iran war and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed over 1 billion barrels of supply, and Morgan Stanley estimates stockpiles fell about 4.8 million barrels a day from March 1 to April 25, a record. A record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves have been pledged, and inventories are near 2018 lows. Even if Hormuz reopens, restocking will add demand. … Show more

Crude oil could jump toward $130-140 if a strike takes Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub, offline and removes a large chunk of supply at once. Iran would likely retaliate beyond military targets with regional proxies, widening the conflict. Even the risk of disrupted exports or unsafe shipping could push prices sharply higher in thin weekend liquidity as shipping slows and insurance spikes. By Monday, oil and energy-linked assets would be repriced higher and inflation expectations reset. … Show more

Crude oil should fall to $60 once the Iran war is over. Oil is at $100 with troops on the ground and the Strait of Hormuz closed, but when the conflict ends rate cuts should follow and the S&P 500, now down 7% this year, should make a stronger comeback. x.com 

Crude oil is headed to $100 a barrel as Iran signals lasting disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf said the strait will not return to pre-war conditions, warning that where Iran does not sell oil, no one will sell oil. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil will pump higher unless the Strait of Hormuz is kept open. Per DeFiTracer, Iran has imposed a blockade on the strait that will stay in place until the US ends its acts of aggression. x.com 

Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com  x.com 

Fears of US strikes on Iran could send crude oil to $200 quickly. FinanceLancelot reports that the USS Theodore Roosevelt is heading to the Middle East and says the move has revived concern that Trump will follow through on threats to hit Iran after the midterm elections. x.com