Crude oil is heading back above $100 after Iran announced a full shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by @Kalshi_Finance. x.com 

An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.com 

Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com  x.com 

A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.com 

Crude oil is heading toward $100 as US-Iran tensions escalate. Higher oil and higher yields both pressure stocks, and a low VIX means nobody is paying for protection, not that risk is low. x.com 

Crude oil should fall to $60 once the Iran war is over. Oil is at $100 with troops on the ground and the Strait of Hormuz closed, but when the conflict ends rate cuts should follow and the S&P 500, now down 7% this year, should make a stronger comeback. x.com 

Oil traders anticipate a resumption of the Iran war after the midterm elections, favoring more upside for crude oil. After a bullish reversal off its 10-week moving average, the odds favor a continuation of the rally to the $110-120 range. x.com 

Crude oil could climb past $150 because the Strait of Hormuz closure is blocking 20 million barrels a day and Iran is more determined than Trump assumes. Oil has already gone from $70 to $120 in three weeks, gasoline is up $1 a gallon in four weeks, and fertilizer is up 43%. The Fed cannot cut and might even hike, and Goldman puts recession odds at 25% and climbing. x.com 

Crude oil now has more room to fall on a deal headline than to rise on the status quo, as Trump's rejection of Iran's seven-day Hormuz plan looks like a negotiating position, with negotiators due back this week and the Saudi foreign minister in Washington. The closed Strait put Brent back at $108 with Nov–Dec backwardation near $8. Speculators added shorts three weeks running, squeeze fuel above $100 if talks fail; a deal would leave about 101,828 contracts of net length as supply. x.com  x.com 

Oil is surging toward $100 as the Hormuz standoff deepens: US crude is near $95 a barrel, up 41% since July 2, and could top $100 by Friday unless something changes. Per CENTCOM, US forces destroyed an Iranian tanker in the Gulf of Oman after attempted IRGC attacks on a US warship, while Trump says there will be no negotiations. Higher oil would make inflation much worse just ahead of the FOMC. x.com  x.com