A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.com 

An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.com 

Crude oil should fall to $60 once the Iran war is over. Oil is at $100 with troops on the ground and the Strait of Hormuz closed, but when the conflict ends rate cuts should follow and the S&P 500, now down 7% this year, should make a stronger comeback. x.com 

Oil is surging toward $100 as the Hormuz standoff deepens: US crude is near $95 a barrel, up 41% since July 2, and could top $100 by Friday unless something changes. Per CENTCOM, US forces destroyed an Iranian tanker in the Gulf of Oman after attempted IRGC attacks on a US warship, while Trump says there will be no negotiations. Higher oil would make inflation much worse just ahead of the FOMC. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil is headed to $100 a barrel as Iran signals lasting disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf said the strait will not return to pre-war conditions, warning that where Iran does not sell oil, no one will sell oil. x.com  x.com 

Oil's slide from $120 during the war to $79 should continue as the US-Iran deal, due to be signed on the 19th in Switzerland, reopens the Strait of Hormuz and ends the US naval blockade, restoring choked supply. Cheaper oil lowers US inflation and flips the market from expecting another hike toward rate cuts, lifting risk assets. The deal is only a 60-day MOU, though, and Israel is the problem: if anything blows up, oil rips and the chain runs in reverse. x.com 

Oil traders anticipate a resumption of the Iran war after the midterm elections, favoring more upside for crude oil. After a bullish reversal off its 10-week moving average, the odds favor a continuation of the rally to the $110-120 range. x.com 

Crude oil is heading back above $100 after Iran announced a full shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by @Kalshi_Finance. x.com 

Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil at $70 prices in far too much optimism and should see $80 before $60. The IRGC knows Trump wants a deal and has little appetite to restart the war, which makes further escalation easy to underestimate. If the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened within weeks to a month, the market will realize the disruption is not temporary, and any Iranian transit fees on Hormuz shipping would likely be passed on to buyers. US VP Vance says violence will be met with violence. x.com