로켓슬라
Korean Growth & Space Investor, RKLB/TSLA/PLTR/SPCX
Oil is surging toward $100 as the Hormuz standoff deepens: US crude is near $95 a barrel, up 41% since July 2, and could top $100 by Friday unless something changes. Per CENTCOM, US forces destroyed an Iranian tanker in the Gulf of Oman after attempted IRGC attacks on a US warship, while Trump says there will be no negotiations. Higher oil would make inflation much worse just ahead of the FOMC. x.com x.com
Crude's war premium could collapse within days once diplomacy delivers, and a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and a reopened Strait of Hormuz look close. High oil feeds US fuel costs, inflation and long-term yields and burdens Japan, so Trump is buying time on other problems while working to bring oil down. After the June 17 US-Iran memorandum, Brent crashed from the $120s to $72. The Treasury's expanded buybacks run until November 4, right after the midterms, as diesel tops $5.90 a gallon. x.com x.com x.com
A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.com
An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.com
Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com x.com
Crude oil is heading toward $100 as US-Iran tensions escalate. Higher oil and higher yields both pressure stocks, and a low VIX means nobody is paying for protection, not that risk is low. x.com
Fears of US strikes on Iran could send crude oil to $200 quickly. FinanceLancelot reports that the USS Theodore Roosevelt is heading to the Middle East and says the move has revived concern that Trump will follow through on threats to hit Iran after the midterm elections. x.com
Sustained high energy prices strain US farming, logistics, manufacturing and consumers, so crude oil should fall dramatically from its elevated level. Middle East and Russia tensions are lifting WTI, shown near $103, while Trump will likely step in at some point to reduce uncertainty. x.com x.com
Crude oil could reach $100 or move even higher, as US–Iran tensions show no sign of easing. x.com
Crude oil should stay sticky and higher because a US-Iran deal is now less likely than at any prior stage of the war. Trust has collapsed after the truce fallout, and Trump has little motivation to push for peace while oil stays below $100 ahead of November; only a break above $100 would build inflationary and electoral pressure for action. Until then, rising 10-year yields above 4.6% are the biggest headwind for equities and bitcoin. Hopefully tensions ease instead. x.com
Crude oil faces near-term pressure as Trump said US-Iran talks were productive and pledged no strikes before the November 3 elections; Brent fell to $103.36. Supply risks persist, however, with attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production shut in ahead of Hurricane Isaias. x.com
Oil traders anticipate a resumption of the Iran war after the midterm elections, favoring more upside for crude oil. After a bullish reversal off its 10-week moving average, the odds favor a continuation of the rally to the $110-120 range. x.com
