Crude oil has room to rise as Trump's war with Iran accelerates and both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are closed. The WTI target set at $67.50 was $83-85, with a $91 overshoot; getting and staying above $91 this time would spell deep trouble. Senior US officials say more than 60 refueling aircraft were sent to Israel ahead of Trump's expected escalation. x.com 

Oil is surging toward $100 as the Hormuz standoff deepens: US crude is near $95 a barrel, up 41% since July 2, and could top $100 by Friday unless something changes. Per CENTCOM, US forces destroyed an Iranian tanker in the Gulf of Oman after attempted IRGC attacks on a US warship, while Trump says there will be no negotiations. Higher oil would make inflation much worse just ahead of the FOMC. x.com  x.com 

Sustained high energy prices strain US farming, logistics, manufacturing and consumers, so crude oil should fall dramatically from its elevated level. Middle East and Russia tensions are lifting WTI, shown near $103, while Trump will likely step in at some point to reduce uncertainty. x.com  x.com 

A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.com 

An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.com 

Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil is heading toward $100 as US-Iran tensions escalate. Higher oil and higher yields both pressure stocks, and a low VIX means nobody is paying for protection, not that risk is low. x.com 

Crude oil should stay sticky and higher because a US-Iran deal is now less likely than at any prior stage of the war. Trust has collapsed after the truce fallout, and Trump has little motivation to push for peace while oil stays below $100 ahead of November; only a break above $100 would build inflationary and electoral pressure for action. Until then, rising 10-year yields above 4.6% are the biggest headwind for equities and bitcoin. Hopefully tensions ease instead. x.com 

WTI crude is headed into the $50s as it becomes apparent the US has control of the strait and Iran has lost its grip. Tanker trackers count at least 15 ship-to-ship transfer sessions in the Gulf of Oman carrying 25 million barrels of crude from almost every country in the region except Iran. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil is headed to $100 a barrel as Iran signals lasting disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf said the strait will not return to pre-war conditions, warning that where Iran does not sell oil, no one will sell oil. x.com  x.com