Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics remain buys amid AI optics demand: Lumentum's CEO said its AI optical parts are completely sold out through early 2029. x.com 

AI bandwidth demand still favors Coherent and Lumentum, but tight customer financing can delay orders and lasting valuations need durable profits. A model provider losing share need not reduce total bandwidth use. Coherent could beat and raise guidance; Lumentum may only meet estimates this quarter, improving next quarter. If margins partly reflect scarce indium phosphide, added supply will test whether upgrades, volume and cost gains sustain earnings. These earnings calls remain forecasts. … Show more

The photonics-as-AI-bottleneck claim has faded, leaving Lumentum facing more pain before the theme recovers. A large December options node sits at $600; the stock bot targets downside at $650 and $595, with $581 a possible liquidity sweep where smart money would buy instead of rushing in at $650 or $630. Most photonics companies will likely never come back. x.com 

Marvell risks paying a peak-scarcity price for Lumentum if optical supply catches up by 2028-30. The proposed ~$99B deal values Lumentum at roughly 20x guided annualized revenue and 58x estimated after-tax operating income, while Lumentum, Coherent and Chinese suppliers are adding laser capacity. The DSP-and-laser combination has strategic logic, but durable scarcity economics and Nvidia's response remain uncertain. x.com 

Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com  x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics, Lumentum and Coherent face share losses at US hyperscalers to Innolight. Channel checks favor Innolight gaining share in Q2 2026, at the expense of those three. Per @poezhao0605, a $7B Hong Kong IPO, the largest in years and upsized from $5B on strong demand, has cleared its listing hearing. x.com 

Lumentum remains an AI laser bottleneck beneficiary: NVIDIA put $2B into the company in March for capacity and access rights to its lasers. A major AI buyer committing capital upfront points to scarce laser supply. x.com 

Networking, power and compute look more durable than cyclical memory in the AI buildout. Lumentum's revenue compounded year after year across the 2010s and 2020s, unlike Micron's; AWS revenue also compounded. Lumentum, Nebius, Bloom Energy and Credo should heavily outperform SanDisk and Micron from here, though AI itself remains heavily doubted. x.com  x.com 

AI bottleneck semiconductor stocks look to have gotten ahead of themselves, with roughly a hundred near-vertical charts where downside now seems to outweigh upside. They are semis and highly cyclical, and many smaller caps may end up trading like meme stocks. A substantial shakeout would offer a better entry. AI, robotics and energy still have years of growth ahead, but chasing these names now is not advisable. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Photonics stocks remain attractive as AI optical-component demand exceeds supply: Lumentum's CEO says the company cannot meet 70% of demand for some products through 2027 or 30% for others through 2028, with some components sold out into early 2029. The cited basket is LITE, MRVL, AAOI, COHR, SIVE and AEHR. x.com