Matthew Hyland
Co-Founder & CEO of ALTvsBTC
ETH should outperform bitcoin over the coming years as the Macro Risk trend turns bullish for the first time since 2012, 2016 and 2020. Macro risk ratios correlated with ETH/BTC and altcoin dominance for a decade explain crypto's underperformance since 2022 and point to outperformance ahead, as in 2016 and 2020. That direction, not rate hikes, cuts or balance-sheet policy, has driven altcoin dominance; the view holds as long as the Macro Risk uptrend persists. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Ethereum looks set up for a bottom and a big run. Major ETH bottoms typically tap a prior high, pull back hard to shake out weak hands, then rip, and the current chart looks almost identical to the last few before big runs. The CLARITY Act vote could be the catalyst that ends the dip and starts the run. x.comÂ
Ethereum's upside looks worth the bet because the payoff to its prior high is much larger than the downside, and buyers still respond to good news. There is roughly 16% down to $1,950 versus a little over 2x back to the prior all-time high. LIT caught a sharp bid around its US regulatory plans, and CHIP rallied 40% around a $1 million buyback; that response looks like a bull-market sign. x.comÂ
Ethereum looks likely to move down toward a major liquidity cluster around $2,615, since there is very little liquidity above. x.comÂ
Ethereum is leading Bitcoin on rising liquidity and risk appetite, having already formed a higher high. On the weekly chart, clearing the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $2,535 opens a smooth path toward the 0.786 level and Ichimoku cloud resistance at $3,300+, where a first major correction or consolidation is expected before new highs. x.com x.comÂ
Ethereum's dominance as the settlement layer matters more than short-term legislation such as the stalled CLARITY Act. Per @lepsoe, the CLARITY Act's failure to advance only delays a durable US market-structure framework and does not reverse direction: the GENIUS Act remains law, stablecoins are becoming the money layer of onchain finance with tokenized assets, DeFi and agents building on top, and much of it settles on Ethereum. x.comÂ
Ethereum faces further downside as smart money sells into strength during distribution. A move toward $2,070 comes first; a break there puts $1,800 in view, with a possible local bottom near $1,600-$1,700 where liquidity sits. Until that sweep, bounces are for selling; a real reversal comes only afterward. x.comÂ
ETH looks desperate to go higher and benefits most if the Clarity Act passes. Surprise progress, helped by an ethics agreement, could pass it this year if tomorrow's cloture vote wins a majority, though much must go right and prediction markets still price it as unlikely. A hike at Wednesday's FOMC, likely dovish and one-and-done, would clear the last bad news. BTC and ETH have reset indicators by chopping after legging up. Even if a deeper wick comes first, dips are for buying. x.comÂ
Bitcoin and Ethereum's pullback is a nothing burger meant to shake people out, and this phase will lead to the next breakout higher. Bears are doubling down on shorts, with open interest rising while funding rates have turned negative. x.comÂ
Ether's price is falling while open interest rises, meaning leverage is building into the dump, a setup that tends to end badly for longs. x.comÂ
Ether stands to gain the most from the CLARITY Act because Ethereum already carries real economic activity. Stablecoins, tokenized assets, DeFi liquidity, layer-2 settlement and institutional rails sit on top of it. A quoted post notes the Senate draft judges decentralization on five criteria that only bitcoin and Ethereum cleanly pass, so the act should send ETH sharply higher. x.comÂ