Aylo
Crypto Researcher, Founder of Alpha Please
ETH looks desperate to go higher and benefits most if the Clarity Act passes. Surprise progress, helped by an ethics agreement, could pass it this year if tomorrow's cloture vote wins a majority, though much must go right and prediction markets still price it as unlikely. A hike at Wednesday's FOMC, likely dovish and one-and-done, would clear the last bad news. BTC and ETH have reset indicators by chopping after legging up. Even if a deeper wick comes first, dips are for buying. x.comÂ
ETH is no longer in a downtrend and has broken its bear-market structure before BTC, which could be an early sign of a stronger cycle this time. Unlike last cycle, when ETH bottomed first but only flipped structure after BTC, it has led. ETH has massively reset its cost basis and churned holders, with many 2015-16 whales gone, so it should face less selling on every move. It still needs buyers, but with the tokenization megatrend as a tailwind it should find plenty of willing capital. x.com x.comÂ
Passage of the CLARITY Act would make the crypto buyer base fully institutional: stickier, longer-horizon and far less swayed by volatility. That supports stability and mass adoption, pushing bitcoin, ether, Zcash and Hyperliquid higher. x.comÂ
Ether and other altcoins that benefit from clearer rules could keep outperforming ahead of the CLARITY Act, because clearer US rules on tokens and crypto businesses would give investors more confidence. As with the long wait for bitcoin ETF approval, anticipation alone can drive a rally before passage, and strength in LIT and ETH against bitcoin suggests traders are betting on good news. A delay could hurt short term, but if passage still looks likely, the anticipation trade should persist. … Show more
Ethereum faces slightly higher near-term selling risk as net inflows raise Binance's sellable ETH supply. Some 55,471 ETH entered and 47,596 left, net 7,875, though both flows have slowed. If inflows persist this week with ETF outflows and high US Treasury yields, pressure could grow around the Fed decision. Rising cumulative ETH 2.0 transactions bode well for network use, not direct demand or relief today. Losing $2,280-2,300 adds downside risk; recovery needs flow and price confirmation. x.comÂ
Ethereum's upside looks worth the bet because the payoff to its prior high is much larger than the downside, and buyers still respond to good news. There is roughly 16% down to $1,950 versus a little over 2x back to the prior all-time high. LIT caught a sharp bid around its US regulatory plans, and CHIP rallied 40% around a $1 million buyback; that response looks like a bull-market sign. x.comÂ
Ethereum looks set up for a bottom and a big run. Major ETH bottoms typically tap a prior high, pull back hard to shake out weak hands, then rip, and the current chart looks almost identical to the last few before big runs. The CLARITY Act vote could be the catalyst that ends the dip and starts the run. x.comÂ
Ether's price is falling while open interest rises, meaning leverage is building into the dump, a setup that tends to end badly for longs. x.comÂ
Ether should keep rising after a near-term shakeout, as rate-hike expectations that have climbed should ease once the next two weeks of data arrive. As in last year's May-to-July, expect a pullback, then a false breakout to $2,700 into the September 15 final ruling on the CLARITY crypto bill and the September 16 Fed meeting, a sell-the-news drop to about $2,100 after those dates, and then further gains. Bitcoin should follow the same path, possibly with a false break below 75,600. x.comÂ
Ethereum looks headed higher as it consolidates after a huge move up, with its RSI resetting below where the move began, even while absorbing the bearish blows of the CLARITY Act's failure and rate hikes. x.comÂ
Ethereum looks likely to move down toward a major liquidity cluster around $2,615, since there is very little liquidity above. x.comÂ
ETH and ETH/BTC strength now, with ETH looking to rise to $2,600 on its own, is insanely bullish for altcoins, including Solana. ETH's wealth effect on alts is huge, and Solana's market cap is still dwarfed by ETH's. A rising ETH/BTC is basically an inverted bitcoin-dominance chart, building pressure after a half-decade alt bear market; when it breaks, the pumps will be biblical. Solana and Robinhood chain ecosystems look to have bottomed, barring a shock such as a BTC dump around FOMC. x.comÂ
