Art of Speculation
Chinese-Language AI Fundamentals & Macro, Concentrated Investing
Ether should keep rising after a near-term shakeout, as rate-hike expectations that have climbed should ease once the next two weeks of data arrive. As in last year's May-to-July, expect a pullback, then a false breakout to $2,700 into the September 15 final ruling on the CLARITY crypto bill and the September 16 Fed meeting, a sell-the-news drop to about $2,100 after those dates, and then further gains. Bitcoin should follow the same path, possibly with a false break below 75,600. x.com
ETH looks desperate to go higher and benefits most if the Clarity Act passes. Surprise progress, helped by an ethics agreement, could pass it this year if tomorrow's cloture vote wins a majority, though much must go right and prediction markets still price it as unlikely. A hike at Wednesday's FOMC, likely dovish and one-and-done, would clear the last bad news. BTC and ETH have reset indicators by chopping after legging up. Even if a deeper wick comes first, dips are for buying. x.com
Ether's near-term recovery is lagging Bitcoin as spot Ether ETFs lost $149 million over Monday and Tuesday while Bitcoin funds gained $286 million. Ether remains below its weekend high and 365-day average; the multi-model signal is still Long on both, with three of four models agreeing on Ether versus four of four on Bitcoin. x.com
Ethereum faces further downside as smart money sells into strength during distribution. A move toward $2,070 comes first; a break there puts $1,800 in view, with a possible local bottom near $1,600-$1,700 where liquidity sits. Until that sweep, bounces are for selling; a real reversal comes only afterward. x.com
Ethereum's upside looks worth the bet because the payoff to its prior high is much larger than the downside, and buyers still respond to good news. There is roughly 16% down to $1,950 versus a little over 2x back to the prior all-time high. LIT caught a sharp bid around its US regulatory plans, and CHIP rallied 40% around a $1 million buyback; that response looks like a bull-market sign. x.com
Bitfinex whales are opening Ethereum longs at a pace seen only once before, in 2020 ahead of a 12x rally. Retail remains fearful around $2,300, but that positioning points to a rally. x.com
Ethereum faces slightly higher near-term selling risk as net inflows raise Binance's sellable ETH supply. Some 55,471 ETH entered and 47,596 left, net 7,875, though both flows have slowed. If inflows persist this week with ETF outflows and high US Treasury yields, pressure could grow around the Fed decision. Rising cumulative ETH 2.0 transactions bode well for network use, not direct demand or relief today. Losing $2,280-2,300 adds downside risk; recovery needs flow and price confirmation. x.com
Ethereum is leading Bitcoin on rising liquidity and risk appetite, having already formed a higher high. On the weekly chart, clearing the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $2,535 opens a smooth path toward the 0.786 level and Ichimoku cloud resistance at $3,300+, where a first major correction or consolidation is expected before new highs. x.com x.com
ETH's return to $2,700 bears out the bottom call, because holders concentrated at $2,700–2,800 kept holding instead of becoming sell pressure. About 13.38M ETH now sits in that band, 380,000 more than two months ago, creating favorable conditions for the recovery. From $2,700 to $3,000 a large amount of supply flips from unrealized loss to profit, so that band should be fairly strong resistance, and whale behavior will largely shape what follows. x.com
Ethereum looks likely to move down toward a major liquidity cluster around $2,615, since there is very little liquidity above. x.com
Ether is set to lead a move many are not ready for, as crypto sentiment and positioning remain extremely offside given what is about to happen. BitMine is setting up for that move, and @Freedom_By_40 sees it as likely bottomed and working on a first sub-wave, possibly to $40-50. x.com
