Mitchell Martan
Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background
Ether's case gains a developer's change of heart. @metahacker_ admits being very wrong about Ethereum: many EIPs over the past three years have drastically improved the developer and user experience, the ecosystem is more robust than ever, and it is the only chain that can claim to be sufficiently decentralized. He suspects Tom Lee will post one of the most absurd PnLs once Ethereum goes on its generational run. x.com
Ether's near-term recovery is lagging Bitcoin as spot Ether ETFs lost $149 million over Monday and Tuesday while Bitcoin funds gained $286 million. Ether remains below its weekend high and 365-day average; the multi-model signal is still Long on both, with three of four models agreeing on Ether versus four of four on Bitcoin. x.com
Bitcoin and ether’s resilience despite months of speculative capital being disintegrated may be a tell. They are the investments to hold or add, not trade. x.com x.com
Bitcoin and ether liquidity is fleeing to AI and the SpaceX IPO, leaving crypto, the darling of 2020-2021, with no bid. The timeline now chases AI the way it chased crypto in 2021, which looks like Magnetar 2.0. Crypto has led markets for a long time and may be leading again, so it may be time to take profits. x.com x.com
Ethereum's upside looks worth the bet because the payoff to its prior high is much larger than the downside, and buyers still respond to good news. There is roughly 16% down to $1,950 versus a little over 2x back to the prior all-time high. LIT caught a sharp bid around its US regulatory plans, and CHIP rallied 40% around a $1 million buyback; that response looks like a bull-market sign. x.com
Crypto's Wild West reputation creates market inefficiencies and, therefore, great opportunity. It looks to have decoupled from stocks over the past year, though the risky narrative persists. x.com
Ether's price is falling while open interest rises, meaning leverage is building into the dump, a setup that tends to end badly for longs. x.com
Bitfinex whales are opening Ethereum longs at a pace seen only once before, in 2020 ahead of a 12x rally. Retail remains fearful around $2,300, but that positioning points to a rally. x.com
Ether should keep rising after a near-term shakeout, as rate-hike expectations that have climbed should ease once the next two weeks of data arrive. As in last year's May-to-July, expect a pullback, then a false breakout to $2,700 into the September 15 final ruling on the CLARITY crypto bill and the September 16 Fed meeting, a sell-the-news drop to about $2,100 after those dates, and then further gains. Bitcoin should follow the same path, possibly with a false break below 75,600. x.com
Ether is not worth buying or using until Ethereum fixes its gas fees, which are too high. x.com
Bitcoin and Ethereum's pullback is a nothing burger meant to shake people out, and this phase will lead to the next breakout higher. Bears are doubling down on shorts, with open interest rising while funding rates have turned negative. x.com