Chris
Engineer & Entrepreneur, Equity/Crypto Swing Trader, Macro & Trade Setups
indie Semiconductor is a $4 ticket to cars becoming computers on wheels. It makes automotive chips for driver assistance and autonomy, revenue grew 24% last quarter, and its radar and vision business is expanding. It also just launched an edge AI chip for smart cameras. x.comÂ
indie Semiconductor is one of the best and least-discussed ways to invest in humanoid robots, because its automotive-proven chips give it a head start. Robots need the multi-camera processing, low power and reliability cars need, and some of the biggest humanoid makers already use indie's products. With the FCC blocking new foreign-built robots, its auto-qualified parts from Swiss and Canadian factories suit Western makers. A $7.4B auto backlog leaves robotics unvalued. x.comÂ
Indie Semiconductor is too early to buy because it probably won't ramp its highest-growth segments until 2028, though it remains interesting. x.comÂ
Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Indie Semiconductor is valued as a single-product automotive chip supplier while holding a portfolio of sensing businesses, per CK Capital's filing review. Beyond automotive radar and image processors, it owns German industrial radar certified to the European machine-safety standard humanoid robots need, Swiss photonics for GPS-denied navigation, a quantum laser and a Chinese unit. At about $920M market cap, those come nearly free with robotics optionality, but the risk is binary. x.comÂ
indie Semiconductor warrants skepticism because it loses about $40M on $60M of revenue and has basically always operated that way. x.comÂ
Semiconductor earnings have outpaced prices, making the selloff look more like forced positioning than a broken growth case. Since January 2025, the SOX rose about 114% while reconstructed forward earnings rose about 198%; the estimate is approximate. Hedge funds sold global tech at a greater-than-three-standard-deviation pace in October 5-16, a pattern seen near earlier lows, though another sharp flush could come before a reversal. x.comÂ
Semiconductors look relatively cheap against the S&P 500, while their earnings are growing much faster, barring an EPS reset. The selloff looks overdone, though that does not mean it reverses tomorrow. x.comÂ
Indie Semiconductor is expensive against its earnings at 36x forward earnings, while chipmakers usually get about 18x. Fair value sits around $1.31-1.66, or 18x next year's $0.08 EPS, so at $2.97 buyers pay about 78% over fair, and the valuation leans on a forecast 61% above trailing earnings. This read rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and estimates only. x.comÂ
Some semiconductor stocks have returned to reasonable valuations as fundamentals improve, making recent declines buying opportunities. Many had traded at two to three times their median valuations; the correction brought some back toward normal, while sustained AI spending should benefit suppliers for years. x.comÂ