GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Indie Semiconductor is expensive against its earnings at 36x forward earnings, while chipmakers usually get about 18x. Fair value sits around $1.31-1.66, or 18x next year's $0.08 EPS, so at $2.97 buyers pay about 78% over fair, and the valuation leans on a forecast 61% above trailing earnings. This read rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and estimates only. x.com
indie Semiconductor is the only US small-cap selling radar, vision and in-cabin ADAS chips under one roof, yet is valued at just $688M. As cars carry more sensing silicon, its design wins across ADAS, cabin and electrification turn into revenue over multi-year ramps. The latest quarter grew 24%, the Emotion3D deal closed to deepen driver monitoring, and EV/sales is 4.2x. The risk: it still loses money, with $292M net debt against $139M cash, so an equity raise is live. x.com
indie Semiconductor warrants skepticism because it loses about $40M on $60M of revenue and has basically always operated that way. x.com
Nvidia's valuation gives too little credit to its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 0.28, the lowest since late 2023; the bullish read depends on those growth expectations proving accurate. x.com x.com
indie Semiconductor is one of the best high-beta semiconductor names still on sale, so it should eventually go ballistic if the broader semiconductor market does again. x.com
Semiconductors are now cheaper than the broader market on forward earnings, provided earnings cuts do not undermine that discount. The sector's forward P/E is about 17 versus roughly 18.6 for the S&P 500. x.com
Advantest looks expensive even on peak-cycle earnings, at about 40 times its 2028 earnings. @holden_commodor argues testing is the ultimate semiconductor bottleneck after memory, with Advantest dominant ahead of Teradyne, and would buy if the drop continues. x.com
Indie Semiconductor is valued as a single-product automotive chip supplier while holding a portfolio of sensing businesses, per CK Capital's filing review. Beyond automotive radar and image processors, it owns German industrial radar certified to the European machine-safety standard humanoid robots need, Swiss photonics for GPS-denied navigation, a quantum laser and a Chinese unit. At about $920M market cap, those come nearly free with robotics optionality, but the risk is binary. x.com
Semiconductors are hardly overheated given the growth coming to the sector, and a forward P/E of 40 or the mid-40s for semi-cap names is not unreasonable. Some names, such as Intel and AMD, are expensive, but TSMC, Broadcom, Nvidia, ASML and many of the big gainers are hardly extended. x.com
ASML's valuation does not make sense at 45-50x forward earnings unless estimates are too low by around 2x. It has always had pricing power but chosen not to exercise it; that may change, but if it does not, the multiple is hard to justify relative to other opportunities. x.com x.com
Semiconductor gains will now have to come from earnings growth rather than multiple expansion, but NVIDIA at 19x forward earnings can still make money. Rising margins normally compress multiples because peak margins signal peak cycle; this cycle ran long and euphoric buying drove multiples up, so a correction was bound to happen. With capex growth projected to slow from 2028, semis growth will likely slow too, and the window to profit from buying chip stocks at 25x sales is closed. x.com
Micron will eventually be priced on future earnings at normalized 65-70% gross margins and about 15-20x at most, which still gets it to $2,500 in two years. Inference demand is not going anywhere for decades, and Micron has said margins will be well above the prior cycle peak of 61%. Anyone citing 30x is delusional, and $4,000 a share next year is unlikely. x.com x.com x.com
