A rising USD/CNH is the strongest threat to US stocks because it would spread China's deflationary spiral to the US and the AI/semiconductor bubble. It matters more than the dollar, yields or oil, if USD/CNH first bottoms at its monthly 200-period average. x.com 

The US dollar should weaken because the US government wants a weaker dollar to increase manufacturing competitiveness and relieve global stress from a strong dollar. x.com 

The US dollar is becoming a black hole for global liquidity, driven by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance and a wave of AI-driven capital flowing back into US tech. Net long dollar positions have surged to $29.4 billion. BofA cut its EUR/USD target to 1.15 from 1.20 and now expects three more hikes this year, while Man Group sees another 5% dollar upside by year-end. This is an AI-monopoly story as much as a rate story, with capital leaving stagnant overseas markets to fund US computing. … Show more

The US dollar is overvalued and weakening as Asian surplus countries stop recycling their surpluses into dollar reserves, an external drain. Without that recycling, both yields and the currency are in price discovery. Ken Rogoff concluded that Asia not recycling would mean a lower dollar against Asian surplus currencies and higher nominal rates, both now happening. Per @DrDavidKass, Ed Yardeni blames the global bond rout on the yen-carry unwind; the explanations are not mutually exclusive. x.com  … Show more

The US dollar looks set for a multi-year bear cycle because a multipolar world needs fewer dollars. Reserve managers are diversifying, trade settles in more currencies and central banks accumulate gold instead. Against an equally weighted basket, the dollar's half-century sequence of lower secular highs is topping again on its 7-to-10-year cycle. Every major commodity bull of the past century ran alongside a falling dollar, which could also bring a second inflation wave. x.com 

The US dollar looks more bullish than bearish because it is priced against other currencies that are hit harder by oil. Most countries' bond yields are rising, not just America's, and the US has the world's most dominant economy, which AI is accelerating relative to others. Still, trading currencies makes little sense when stocks are rising 25%+ a year. x.com 

Early Treasury buying is mostly domestic, so falling rates can coincide with a falling US dollar. Foreign buying is expected later in the bust, when the dollar should reverse sharply higher; this does not bring the previously forecast dollar rebound forward. x.com 

BYD looks like the safer value play because its vehicle sales and revenue exceed Tesla's while its valuation is much lower. The comparison puts BYD at about $111 billion of sales and market cap, versus Tesla's $94.8 billion sales and $1.45 trillion cap; BYD delivered 2.26 million battery EVs against Tesla's 1.64 million in 2025. China's price war still keeps BYD's margins thin. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

The dollar should catch a monster bid before any structural weakness, because fiat is a menu of bad choices and in a deleveraging no one reaches for euros or renminbi. If the US concludes it will not win in AI, there is a high probability the next step is to tank everything, and the dollar and US bonds would then be bid; the yen could also rise as carry trades unwind. Dollar strength comes first and leads to structural dollar weakness on the other side. x.com  x.com 

Beijing's reported plan to sell hundreds of billions in US bonds to support Chinese stocks makes Chinese equities extremely bullish. The aim is to make China's market look stronger than the US and attract investors worldwide. A massive US bond selloff would put enormous pressure on global markets. x.com