Joestar
Crypto Analyst, DeFi Analytics Tools Builder, Perpetuals & Tokenization
Hyperliquid risks losing RWA perp growth as TradeXYZ's volume and open interest slowly decline while competitors grow. TradeXYZ's market share against Aster, Lighter and Variational also looks weak; the risk is to Hyperliquid, not just TradeXYZ. CEX adoption of HIP-3 could make it succeed, but that has yet to happen, and crypto projects do not look incentivized to use it. x.com x.com x.com
ICE and trade[XYZ]'s planned U.S. venue gives Hyperliquid a concrete route into U.S.-regulated perpetual futures. It would use Hyperliquid infrastructure for 24/7 perps across equities, commodities, FX and crypto, subject to CFTC approval. For HYPE, this is blockchain adoption, not bitcoin exposure. x.com x.com
A planned US-regulated perps market on Hyperliquid's rails would broaden HYPE's reach into traditional finance. Bloomberg reports that ICE and Trade.xyz plan a market with its own clearing and compliance systems for contracts linked to stocks, indices, commodities and currencies, pending regulatory approval. x.com
ICE's planned US perps access could grow Hyperliquid's users, volume and revenue, but that growth may already be priced into HYPE. CFTC approval, a launch and actual US adoption are still needed; even then, extra fees and buybacks must beat expectations. ICE backing, Druckenmiller investing and Elon tweeting have made the story widespread. The easy HYPE trade looks over for average retail investors, though this call could be early. x.com x.com
Hyperliquid's planned US entry could bring its onchain infrastructure to regulated perpetual-futures markets through the biggest gate possible: ICE, the NYSE's parent. ICE and trade[XYZ] plan to use Hyperliquid's HIP-3* infrastructure for US traders across crypto, equities, commodities and FX, subject to regulatory approval. This is huge news for HYPE. x.com
ICE's proposed Hyperliquid-based US perpetuals market could lift HYPE by driving more trading volume, fees and token buybacks. Per Cointelegraph, NYSE parent ICE plans the market; it still needs CFTC approval. x.com
Hyperliquid's valuation looks stretched against what serious markets pay for exchanges, and perpetual futures have been, and always will be, a niche product with no real moat. x.com
Hyperliquid's institutional case strengthens because NYSE owner ICE plans a regulated perpetual-futures market on its network. ICE has also taken a stake in a linked project; institutional interest in HYPE is clear. x.com
Hyperliquid is taking share as infrastructure underpinning financial markets, supporting a long view on HYPE. Stan Druckenmiller said trade(xyz) is partnering with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the US; that is welcome progress. x.com
Binance's spot listing of Hyperliquid's HYPE token is likely its short-term top. Per @coinbureau, HYPE surged near $95 on the announcement. @Kaffchad argues Binance only validates existing volume and retail will chase well past $95; the reply is that this marks the short-term top. x.com x.com
Hyperliquid's growing perp share feeds fees into HYPE buybacks even as the market shrinks. Its share among the top 12 perp DEXs rose from 25% in January to 43% in September, below August's 47% peak. Its trailing buyback yield is 3.52% versus 1.51% for the S&P 500, but depends on trading volume and shrinks on fully diluted supply as tokens unlock. Watcher Guru reported plans by the NYSE owner to bring HYPE perps to regulated US markets; $100 remains the chart target. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more