dYdX is the biggest decentralized perpetuals exchange, with billions in daily volume and real fees, users and protocol, yet its token is down 97% from its all-time high. The DeFi perps narrative is heating up, and dYdX is the original. x.com
Alan Rogers
Full-Time Crypto Trader
dYdX's token has a lot of upside if the rebranded Arcus can execute its pivot to perps on equities, commodities and indices, where most perps growth should come, as HIP-3 shows. Robinhood featured Arcus as one of two perps protocols among a dozen, bringing distribution. The same, nearly fully circulating token captures all value at a $130M FDV, a fifteenth of Lighter's; Jito rerated from $250M to $800M FDV after a similar perps pivot. The post-event selloff looks like a knee-jerk reaction. x.com
Hyperliquid's growing perp share feeds fees into HYPE buybacks even as the market shrinks. Its share among the top 12 perp DEXs rose from 25% in January to 43% in September, below August's 47% peak. Its trailing buyback yield is 3.52% versus 1.51% for the S&P 500, but depends on trading volume and shrinks on fully diluted supply as tokens unlock. Watcher Guru reported plans by the NYSE owner to bring HYPE perps to regulated US markets; $100 remains the chart target. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
dYdX broke out of a multi-month triangle as the market buys the expectation of news rather than news itself. It rose over 40% in 24 hours with no launch, partnership or major news, only an X account counting down to an important announcement, which added hundreds of millions of dollars in value. If the breakout holds, $0.24 is the next target, and a move above it could send DYDX toward $0.36. x.com
Tokenization and demand for real economics make DeFi lending, spot and yield tokens extremely appealing on risk-reward. This unrivaled trend will grow DeFi value 50x or more over multiple years, and fast. The altcoin bear market is forcing better token structures: Ethena, Uniswap and Aave are improving unit economics, Chainlink to some extent. Battle-tested Pendle and Morpho, with efficient businesses and institutional ties, will re-rate hard. A DeFi Summer return is nearly certain. x.com
A deeper, more liquid perpetual-futures market should expand Ethena's USDe funding reserves, making StablecoinX the best risk/reward way to gain exposure to securities tokenization and growing perps. ICE and trade[XYZ] plan a dedicated U.S. market, subject to CFTC approval. StablecoinX's updated fully diluted NAV is $20.41 versus a $9.15 share price, a 55% discount. x.com x.com x.com
Perpetual DEXs are structurally taking over crypto leveraged trading, and Hyperliquid leads them with about $4.31T of cumulative volume, roughly 35-38% share. Per DeFiLlama and CoinGecko data, perp DEX cumulative volume passed $12.09T, with 2025 alone contributing $7.9T, and DEX share of perp trading versus centralized exchanges rose fivefold from 2.0% in January 2024 to 10.2% in January 2026, peaking near 19%. Challengers such as edgeX, Aster, Grvt and Lighter are catching up. x.com
Hyperliquid is attractive because live protocols with oracle and liquidation risk can charge for ongoing risk management, giving them a potential moat. Easily copied protocols may see margins competed away. Crypto revenue continues to rise while total market cap is down nearly 40%, making good revenue-backed coins a generational long-term opportunity. Not every protocol has a moat. x.com x.com x.com
Hyperliquid's valuation looks stretched against what serious markets pay for exchanges, and perpetual futures have been, and always will be, a niche product with no real moat. x.com
Robinhood's onchain business is growing fast, and insuring its onchain yield makes DeFi safer for new users. Per Robinhood Earn's Hillary Skeffington, Robinhood backstopped onchain yield with a Lloyd's of London policy, one of the largest active onchain insurance products in the industry, which shields users from risks like smart-contract hacks. Robinhood Chain is posting insane growth, and per Robinhood's Nicola White, it is introducing what it calls the first true US perps offering. x.com … Show more
Hyperliquid is a disruptor of stock exchanges and still tiny next to the companies it is taking on, which makes it a good long-term hold. Its exchange is useful even for checking prices on weekends, and the token has held up very well while most crypto sold off. It is still early. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com