Altcoins have a stronger cycle setup because the Fed’s balance sheet has been growing again after shrinking from 2023 to 2025, when alts lagged Bitcoin. Improving risk ratios point the same way. The outlook is not certain: the author assigns 50% odds to chop, 40% to outperformance and 10% to a decline. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crypto's coming run will be much larger than 2020's because stock-market and gold runs into 2026 exceeded those into 2020. Bitcoin's and Ethereum's runs into 2025 also exceeded those into 2019. Macro-risk ratios across stocks, metals, oil, PMI and crypto again resemble 2016 and 2020, positioning Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins for a major bull run. Focus on 2027-28; the one-year median altcoin return against Bitcoin is still -17.5%. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Weak liquidity and insufficient buying pressure leave altcoins vulnerable to another liquidation wave. Many sit near support while selling pressure persists, so even a small selloff could trigger liquidations; a bounce is still possible, but the bottom is not convincing yet. A further major drop would offer better entries in bitcoin, ether, Pendle and Bittensor, whose long-term potential remains intact. x.com 

Bitcoin's macro-risk ratios doubled the time spent declining, pointing to one longer cycle rather than two four-year cycles. The July 2026 low came 44 months in, with perhaps another 52 months for the larger cycle to complete; elevated bitcoin dominance, low altcoin dominance and subdued ETH/BTC echo 2016 and 2020. Bitcoin is very likely to exceed $250,000, with a likely 2028 top followed by a multi-year 70%-80%+ bear market. Ether should outperform bitcoin going forward. x.com  x.com 

Altcoins are entering their first expansion against stablecoins since the 2016-17 altseason, a run that should dwarf 2021's by 2027. Altcoins have broken out of an ABCDE triangle against stablecoin dominance as focus shifts from stables into altcoins; 2021 was only a retrace season. Widespread fear of a dip, and side-liners waiting for one, point higher in the immediate term. Picks for the initial run include Bittensor, Solana, Pudgy Penguins, Ondo, Book of Meme and Curve. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Hyperliquid, Zcash and NEAR would likely drop 20-30% first if bitcoin falls, and bitcoin has 10-20% downside potential. All three are strong coins, but fundamentals do not matter in that kind of sell-off. Arthur Hayes, who called them a holy trinity, picks real projects, but his timing is the issue: his last big Zcash call came near a top. x.com 

Bitcoin may be near a local top as altcoin spot volume hits about 4x Bitcoin's, the highest ratio in a year. Per Glassnode, similar spikes have coincided with local BTC tops rather than the start of an altcoin season, so this is the time to rotate smart, not late. x.com 

Crypto still has room to rise because institutional adoption is accelerating and good altcoins remain underowned globally. Traditional finance is bringing assets onchain, and progress since five years ago makes it impossible to be bearish. Bitcoin looks stronger than overstretched altcoins and has shaken off severe bad news; more chop or shakeouts could come before the market moves higher. x.com 

Crypto assets should reprice upward as purchasing power falls and nearly everything else costs more. Tokenization is still in its earliest stage and should reward patient investment in projects positioned to capture it; an altcoin portfolio centered on Ethereum and value-accrual tokens, with some Robinhood and Arc exposure, should outperform nearly everything over six to twelve months. Robinhood and Arc chains may drive much of the broader altcoin expansion. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-term-holder coins bought above $85K leave Bitcoin facing resistance there. Short-term-holder cost bases provide support below, and realized losses are shrinking with each dip. Bitcoin has closed above $85K on only five days since January, never more than three in a row. x.com