evans
Crypto Scalper & DeFi Content Creator
Bitcoin's bear market may be close to ending: the short-term holder cost basis has moved below the active long-term holder cost basis, a metric that worked well in past cycles. After almost nine months in the bear zone, that makes slow buying better than waiting for everything to look bullish, though it doesn't call the exact bottom or signal a bull run now. New buyers keep buying the dip, cutting their average entry from $112.5K to $69K. x.com
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana are being accumulated cheaply by institutions, which targeted crypto leverage over the past year and nuked the asset class. TradFi is building the rails and infrastructure for crypto every day while retail interest is nowhere to be found. Per Watcher Guru, $13 trillion Charles Schwab has called on the US Senate to pass the Crypto Clarity Act. x.com
Bitcoin and ether’s resilience despite months of speculative capital being disintegrated may be a tell. They are the investments to hold or add, not trade. x.com x.com
Bitcoin is unlikely to stage a 2020-style V-shaped recovery because crypto keeps competing with AI for capital, and the flows have clearly gone to equities, especially AI names. The 2020 rebound followed a pandemic, a doubling of the money supply, rate cuts and stimulus checks; today global liquidity is at a record, but rates could rise. Bitcoin may still be a great buy here. @Bobby_1111888 argues the macro backdrop is the most 2020-like since then and the AI headwind may be turning. x.com x.com
Bitcoin could draw a wave of client liquidity as asset managers move beyond offering access to ranking it as a top investment prospect. JPMorgan projects it as the highest-performing asset over the next ten years, a major shift in how finance views it. Other managers are likely to follow, and many investors take their advice. x.com
Bitcoin's utility creates demand and convexity, while its scarce supply protects that upside because supply cannot respond to price. Most scarce things fail the utility test; bitcoin passes both. Adoption is unfolding one balance sheet at a time: Strategy holds 848,517 BTC, more than the next 200 public companies combined; Strive is #4 and climbing at 36,818, and SpaceX is #7 at 18,712. x.com x.com
Ether should outperform Bitcoin next cycle because of the leveraged overhang in the STRC, Strategy and Bitcoin complex and Bitcoin's quantum concerns. Ether has narrative tailwinds from upcoming upgrades adding quantum resistance and privacy, plus a real, Lindy moat in stablecoin transactions, though it is not actually deflationary. Everything depends on market liquidity, and no massive rallies look imminent. x.com x.com
Money is starting to rotate into crypto, including Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. As @blknoiz06 puts it, if this outperformance continues, the amount that could rotate into crypto is hard to fathom, given the ludicrous realized gains from AI stocks over the past two years. x.com
Crypto still has room to rise because institutional adoption is accelerating and good altcoins remain underowned globally. Traditional finance is bringing assets onchain, and progress since five years ago makes it impossible to be bearish. Bitcoin looks stronger than overstretched altcoins and has shaken off severe bad news; more chop or shakeouts could come before the market moves higher. x.com
Bitcoin and ether liquidity is fleeing to AI and the SpaceX IPO, leaving crypto, the darling of 2020-2021, with no bid. The timeline now chases AI the way it chased crypto in 2021, which looks like Magnetar 2.0. Crypto has led markets for a long time and may be leading again, so it may be time to take profits. x.com x.com
Crypto's maturation, alongside monetary debasement, should keep the revenue-generating and store-of-value portfolio barbell outperforming. These are its two primary drivers. x.com