Solana is struggling to sell blockspace, a commodity racing to zero, while heavily diluting holders. At this year's rate, fees come to about $300M against roughly $2.4B of newly minted SOL, and fees are down about 79% year over year amid competition from Ethereum, Base, Hyperliquid, Near and others. SOL is not money either, so neither a profitable-chain nor a monetary-premium bull case holds. Nasdaq earns 17x what Solana does while buying back about twice as much and issuing no shares. x.com  … Show more

Solana has lost its moats: speed and retail mindshare carried it this cycle, and every narrative it was meant to own now has a stronger competitor. Memecoin attention is spreading to Robinhood, BNB and Base, Robinhood is coming for tokenized stocks, and Hyperliquid owns perps. Solana's perps did $8.9B last week, which Hyperliquid often does in a day. As more volume settles in its $15.5B of stablecoins, SOL matters less beyond gas. Pump.fun has sold about 4.8M SOL and expanded beyond Solana. … Show more

Bitcoin Cash is widely misunderstood and could rise with the rally in privacy-focused coins. Zcash went from $50 a year ago to above $1,600, a comparison that argues for reassessing Bitcoin Cash's true value. It is the most misunderstood successful experiment in crypto and is making a comeback. x.com  x.com 

Solana's on-chain growth should soon show up in its price. Per @gemtoast, Solana has handled over 50% of daily crypto transactions for months and recently did about twice the rest combined. x.com 

Bitcoin remains unappealing because there are no cash flows behind it. It still has two real merits: it can potentially hedge against inflation, and it cannot be printed, since creating it takes real, expensive energy, which grounds it in physical reality. x.com 

Bitcoin Cash is a hedge against the quantum threat to crypto because it is already adding quantum resistance. A replying post notes that migrating Bitcoin is a global coordination problem, with millions of users, lost keys and inactive wallets that cannot simply be upgraded. x.com 

Ethereum can't do well over time unless it regains the strength and market share it lost to Solana, especially with inflationary tokenomics. Crypto is maturing, and Bitcoin will no longer lift the rest of the market the way it used to, contrary to @Nam_1r's view that a big bitcoin rally would surely pull ETH to a new high. x.com 

Solana looks like last cycle's Ether, a laggard among the majors, because its inflation keeps diluting holders. Emissions run about $5 million a day at current prices and rise as price climbs, and even with the new proposals SOL would remain inflationary. Growth in onchain activity does not accrue value to the token, and SOL was the worst-performing major even as ETH moved up. Any upside from the proposals passing is a short-term trade to sell into. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin remains extremely bullish over the cycle, but crypto will very likely move lower before year-end so the cycle can reset before the trend reverses. Indicators, historical data, seasonality, the economic and Bitcoin cycles and structural issues in the debt-based system all point that way, and an unforeseen catalyst will likely appear to justify a move already underway. The bill is coming due, aggressive rate cuts and QE are inevitable, and crypto will explode when almost no one is left. … Show more

Bitcoin risks a mining death spiral if its price does not recover. With 95% of supply mined, mining profits have been in the dumpster for nearly a year and fees are only 5% of the reward, not offsetting the halving. Compounding losses would force miners to stop, even with free power, since staff and maintenance still cost money, and farms could be dumped as in the 2021 crash. Fewer miners and lower difficulty mean weaker security and less trust, opening the door to quantum or AI attacks. x.com  … Show more