Jorge A.
Stock & Options Trader
AST SpaceMobile's latest 8-K is a bad sign, especially alongside an April compensation disclosure. @pobremillenial reads the 8-K as suspicious of dilution. Per @DeepValueBagger, on September 25, 2026 AST adopted a change-of-control severance policy paying the CEO 2x and other senior executives 1.5x salary plus target bonus, with full acceleration of newly granted equity, if they leave within a year after a sale; CEO Abel Avellan controls 71% of voting power. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's new capital raise is a major red flag because it comes after the company reassured shareholders it didn't need one. Per another investor, AST repeatedly said it was fully funded for 100+ satellites, yet raised during a 50% drawdown with fewer than 15 satellites in orbit. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's better retention helps its difficult satellite-production ramp. LinkedIn data show 58% of 2025 line hires and 83% of engineering/white-collar hires remain. The 2026 cohorts look better but have only 1-10 months of observation; self-reporting creates sampling error. Headcount doubled despite oil-sector competition for Midland technicians. Hiring draws on aerospace primes and telcos. Ozzie Ramos's arrival and added double-trigger severance terms suggest a possible buyout. x.com … Show more
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's negative fundamentals make this a time for patience. Trailing net income is -$811 million, free cash flow -$1.74 billion and EPS -$2.14; wait for a catalyst change, specifically growing earnings. x.comÂ
SpaceX buying Grain's spectrum is not bullish for AST SpaceMobile, with only secondary angles that read positively. SpaceX has spent roughly $26 billion on spectrum, so AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile should spend to defend their moat instead of downplaying Musk; letting Grain buy spectrum only to flip it to SpaceX likely ranks among the most self-destructive management moves ever. AST's change-of-control filing came at an unusual time, likely ahead of this news, suggesting more than housekeeping. … Show more
AST SpaceMobile's ~$20B valuation prices in years of growth despite only $31M in revenue last quarter, leaving expectations vulnerable to an unwind even as the business progresses. Space communications remains attractive long term, but a sustained loss of $50.70 could deepen the correction toward $19-35; that move is not certain. Holding support and reclaiming $60-66 by month-end would improve the outlook. A 10-15% market correction could also cause a selloff without implying business failure. … Show more
AST SpaceMobile looks set to fall after announcing a $1 billion offering of convertible notes due 2034 while the stock was already struggling. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is starting to look attractive after a 60% drop from its highs, an overshoot following a 500% run from early 2025. The 18.5% fall on a convertible offering looks excessive: per @ChairmansLedger, $1 billion at 1.625% with a capped call implies about 1.5% potential dilution, and the long-term thesis did not change. RSI at 31 is the lowest since the 2024 lows, at key Fibonacci and VWAP levels. High-beta momentum stocks overshoot both ways. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is unattractive because it is a telecom business, already a poor industry to invest in, with no regulatory protection. That is the reply to @TheLongInvest's claim that AST is a 10x to 100x stock headed for a $2 trillion market cap in five years. x.comÂ
