Brad Freeman
Equity Researcher, Creator of Stock Market Nerd
Nubank's new $1B buyback should directly shrink its share count, since dilution is minimal, and it is likely the first of many for a fast-growing, money-printing company. Its elite balance sheet, with a couple of billion in spare holding-company cash and a large capital cushion above requirements, lets it fund both growth and buybacks. It trades at 13x forward EPS with 30%+ EPS growth expected over three years, a PEG under 0.5x, with 40%+ FX-neutral revenue growth and a 30% ROE. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Nu Holdings looks mispriced because its fundamentals keep strengthening while sentiment and macro concerns pressure the stock. It has more than 135 million customers after adding about 4 million in Q1, when revenue was $5.3B and net income $871M, with a 29% ROE, an 83% activity rate and an efficiency ratio improved to 17.6%. That disconnect is the reason to add, though it remains a higher-risk position. x.com
Nu Holdings trades at only 12x forward earnings despite strong growth, expanding profitability and operating leverage across its businesses and products. It costs under $1 to serve a customer, with no branches, paperwork or hidden fees; it reached 130+ million customers in eleven years and runs a 20% efficiency ratio versus 55% for the average bank. Per @JonahLupton, Q2 revenue rose 50% and net income 67%; he puts it near 11.2x next-twelve-month EPS with fair value of $24-28 per share. x.com … Show more
Nu Holdings' upcoming earnings look unlikely to be well received if the market does not reward Inter & Co's results, since the two have historically traded similarly around earnings. Both operate in the same credit cycle, but Nu has a much lower share of secured lending, putting it at a credit-risk disadvantage, though it is more diversified across countries. x.com
Nu Holdings remains too cheap at about 13x forward earnings, worth buying more. Per @TheRayMyers, over two years customers rose from 105M to 139M, ARPU from $11 to $17 and net income from $1.5B to $3.6B, while the share price slipped from $14 to $13. x.com
Nu Holdings' growth under Lula makes today's selloff look absurd. On a TTM basis since Q1 2023, revenue rose 270% and net income went from a $180 million loss to $3.61 billion, or $0.74 EPS; having done so well during his term, it should be fine going forward. x.com x.com x.com
Nu Holdings' management keeps delivering impressive growth and improving profitability, with net income up 67% year over year, supporting its long-term growth story even though the stock is down 10% year to date. x.com
Nu Holdings' sustained growth makes election-driven pessimism look overdone. Quarterly revenue before credit-loss provisions grew at a 45.1% annualized rate from Q1 2023 to Q2 2026 under Lula. This Brazilian shock looks like the tariff scare, when markets quickly shrugged off initial pessimism. FedexSTi notes that Nu reached 139 million customers and $1 billion in quarterly net income after enduring Brazil's 2014-16 recession, Dilma's impeachment and the pandemic. x.com x.com x.com
Nu Holdings is a buy today because it shows operating leverage. Since 2020, monthly revenue per active customer has risen 382%, from $3.30 to $15.90, while the cost to serve each customer fell from $1.10 to $1.00: more revenue at lower cost. x.com x.com
Nubank keeps proving it is not just adding customers but making more money from each one, which is what long-term compounding looks like. Revenue rose 39% year over year to $5.9B, and quarterly net income topped $1B for the first time. x.com
Nubank is a good entry again because enough uncertainty is priced in to justify the remaining downside risk. Underwriting and risk-adjusted returns have never been better and keep surprising to the upside, and the loan book is very short-dated. Payroll and secured loans are its next growth wave in Brazil, where it adds 12 million users a year while ARPAC rises. With 40–50%+ ROE and close to 50% revenue growth, it is not out of growth. x.com x.com x.com x.com