Ford's low-price push against Chinese EV makers is unlikely to end well because the segment is intensely price-sensitive and Chinese manufacturers innovate and refresh models at a frightening pace. Ford should expect margin erosion, and one successful pickup would not dent the disruption under way. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla's 200x earnings multiple asks too much of weak current results and speculative future products. Third-quarter revenue fell 0.4% year over year and EBIT missed estimates by 25%, despite gross-margin and cash-flow beats. Robotaxis, humanoids and other future plans may have appeal, but impressive parts of the business do not make the stock worth its current price. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla cannot be justified at a P/E above 250 given how it has performed over the last four years, despite strong support for Elon Musk. x.com 

Ford's battery storage push is incremental at best, yet it added 40%, or $20B, to the market cap since the May 18 announcement. Using Tesla Megapack economics, Ford's hoped-for 20 GWh a year from 2028, after a $2B investment, would mean $3-5B revenue and $1-1.5B gross profit, raising gross profit dollars only 6-10%. That assumes full demand, Tesla-like efficiency and no price erosion, unlikely given battery history, Tesla's new 60 GWh Houston plant and Ford's lack of scale or balance sheet. … Show more

Tesla's $1.4T valuation prices in absolute perfection and leaves too little headroom to outperform the market over the next few years. Robotaxis, FSD, Optimus, AI and energy storage are exciting, but the share price pays now for what may be achievable in a decade. Tesla makes half Ford's free cash flow, and Uber earns more than double its net income at about a tenth of the value. Car sales peaked in 2022-23 as Chinese automakers ended growth, so it is unclear where the cash comes from. x.com  … Show more

Tesla's fundamentals have not caught up with its valuation, since revenue has stayed basically flat for four years. x.com 

Ford fired experienced engineers before testing its AI strategy, a misstep that makes the stock tempting to short. Per Polymarket, Ford has rehired more than 300 veteran human engineers after saying AI failed to deliver the same level of expertise. x.com 

Tesla's promises keep growing while its fundamentals do not. Revenue has not moved since 2023, EPS is down, and shareholders are being diluted while the CEO collects compensation. Execution keeps slipping, with robotaxis, Mars and EV leadership all behind schedule. Its 3.67% profit margin is in Walmart's range, yet Walmart has about 7x the revenue and grows faster, before even considering valuation. A combination with SpaceX looks like the next marketing scheme. x.com 

Car companies make great products but terrible businesses because competition kills margins. A great car keeps a customer away for two decades and a mediocre one sends him to a rival, so there is no recurring revenue. The industry is capital intensive, cyclical, union-heavy and lacks pricing power, with a hundred competitors cutting prices, adding capacity and buying share. That applies to BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, BYD, Toyota and Volkswagen alike. x.com 

The Russell 2000's cheapest P/E among the major indices does not make small caps a buy. Once growth and earnings revisions are factored in, it looks like the least attractive index of the group. x.com