Thierry from arvy
CFA, Co-Founder & CIO of arvy, Quality Investing
Car companies make great products but terrible businesses because competition kills margins. A great car keeps a customer away for two decades and a mediocre one sends him to a rival, so there is no recurring revenue. The industry is capital intensive, cyclical, union-heavy and lacks pricing power, with a hundred competitors cutting prices, adding capacity and buying share. That applies to BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, BYD, Toyota and Volkswagen alike. x.com
Automakers are a sector to avoid because brutal competition kills profitability, leaving gross margins of just 8–18% and very little room for error, even with incredible new products ahead. BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Tesla are sawing off the branch they sit on, and BYD brought a chainsaw. Ferrari, with a 51% gross margin, is the one exception. x.com
Ford's low-price push against Chinese EV makers is unlikely to end well because the segment is intensely price-sensitive and Chinese manufacturers innovate and refresh models at a frightening pace. Ford should expect margin erosion, and one successful pickup would not dent the disruption under way. x.com x.com x.com
Ferrari is less attractive to own now because its Luce numbers look increasingly underwhelming and prices are already being cut. The company and brand remain appealing, but the money could work better elsewhere. x.com
Toyota is far stronger financially than people realize and best in class among automakers, setting it up to re-rate. Net financial assets and investments equal 30% or more of its market cap, it trades at 10x earnings and 1x tangible book with a dividend above 3%, and it is buying back shares aggressively. Like a once low-multiple steel company that kept buying back stock and re-rated as best in class, Toyota stands apart from rivals with crumbling balance sheets. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Tesla's stagnant car business and rising AI and robotics spending are squeezing current earnings before those bets have paid off. Q3 revenue was flat as auto sales slipped and regulatory credits collapsed; operating expenses rose 39%, operating income fell 56%, and EPS dropped from $0.43 to $0.24. The spend-now, profit-later strategy is testing investors' patience. x.com
Tesla's falling automotive revenue and shrinking energy business undermine its growth-company case. In Q3 2026, automotive revenue fell 3% year over year and energy revenue fell 16%; operating margin was 2.6%, and revenue missed expectations. These numbers are pathetic even for a mature business and embarrassing for a growth darling. SpaceX has to buy Tesla to mask a weak business inside a stronger one, as Musk did with SolarCity. x.com x.com x.com
Tesla is expensive, but the market is not fully pricing in successful execution on FSD, robotaxis and Optimus, which give it multiple shots at entirely new revenue streams beyond selling cars. That counters @EarningsBrief's view that Tesla is already priced 5-10 years into the future. x.com
Repeated promises without timely delivery make Tesla and SpaceX unattractive to own. Roadster is years late, Tesla Semi mass production has been repeatedly delayed, Optimus and Cybercab deployment trails promises, and Mars colonization deadlines have slipped. Tesla's auto margins and profits are under pressure. Execution matters more than hype. x.com
Tesla's car business is ex-growth and in decline, and its financial numbers are dire. Per the Q3 earnings breakdown quoted in the post, total revenue was flat, automotive revenue fell 3% year over year, net income fell 43% and free cash flow fell 62%. x.com x.com
Tesla's operating profit keeps shrinking even as revenue rebounds, making it look like a weak cyclical automaker. S&P Capital IQ shows 2025 revenue falling 2.9% to $94.8 billion and EBIT dropping from $7.7 billion in 2024 to $4.4 billion in 2025; latest twelve-month revenue reaches $103.6 billion while EBIT falls further to $3.1 billion. x.com
Tesla's deteriorating earnings and automotive revenue undermine its growth story. In Q3 2026, automotive revenue fell 3% year over year, operating income fell 56%, and diluted EPS fell 44%, while total revenue was flat. x.com
