3X Long Labubu
Long-Term Investor, Hobby Trader
Qualcomm is a meme play on a squeeze of a consensus short rather than a fundamental story, since its core server CPU team just left. The chart setup looks great after closing a bearish gap from January, some major player appears to be squeezing the shorts, and good news is coming. The target is $180, but a horrible earnings report Wednesday would end the trade. x.com x.comÂ
Qualcomm has little downside with Amazon having come in as an investor at around $160 a share. Investors give it almost no credit for AI, wearables, robotics and auto, and those businesses can do the heavy lifting to keep the stock steady next year. x.comÂ
Qualcomm's recent dip was a healthy retest of its 21-day moving average ahead of the Snapdragon Summit on September 22-24. There it is expected to unveil the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 and Gen 6 Pro, its first flagship chips on TSMC's 2-nanometer process. The low-to-mid $170s should hold and the stock should be bought back above $190, with a $200-210 target in October, though the summit could be a sell-the-news event. x.com x.comÂ
Qualcomm stays a Hold, with the target cut to $186 on handset weakness and limited near-to-mid-term data-center visibility. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue guidance of $9.7-10.5B fell short of buy-side chatter near $11B; Android faces elevated wafer inventories and Apple modem revenue is falling faster than expected. Data-center targets of $5B in FY27 and $15B+ in FY29 were reaffirmed and AI250 has four major US cloud customers, but high LPDDR5 prices hurt its competitiveness, and CPUs are years off. … Show more
Qualcomm's move from $140 to $180 does not make it expensive, because the company is gushing cash flow and the market is only starting to price that this might be sustained and grow. It was a very cheap stock at $140, and $180 merely reflects sustained cash flow. $250 would show confidence in small free cash flow growth, $300 in modest growth, and $500 would approach 10% annual free cash flow growth. x.comÂ
Qualcomm looks like an overlooked large cap with strong return potential. If it hits its $18 EPS target by 2029, its 18x average P/E implies $324 a share, a 19% CAGR, or $396 and a 27% CAGR at today's 22x, before any upside from major new deals with Amazon and BMW. It is much more than a smartphone chip company: auto is growing 60% year over year and it is moving into data centers. x.comÂ
Apple dropping Qualcomm in favor of its own chips is a warning sign for Qualcomm. When Apple dumped Intel's chips, it marked five years of pain for Intel. Around $150 would be the right level to step in. x.comÂ
Qualcomm has more upside after breaking out of its latest volatility hole on the weekly chart, as long as whale accumulation stays strong and steady, currently at 52.4%. The cycle bottom formed at an earlier volatility hole with a descending blue ribbon, and momentum has since rebuilt, confirmed by a bullish red ribbon and rising accumulation. Resistance sits at $203, $225 and $252, with support at $192. x.comÂ
Qualcomm's growth is broadening beyond phones into autos, IoT and data-center AI. Auto revenue grew 61%, IoT is climbing and its AI200/250 data-center push uses memory-hungry designs. The weekly chart shows a breakout candle right under a huge volume shelf at $172. x.comÂ
Qualcomm is weak in its own capabilities while facing longer phone replacement cycles and pricier memory. Its other growth narratives are a very long way off. x.comÂ
Qualcomm's multi-generation AWS collaboration on custom AI data center silicon and inference shows its data center customers are becoming clear. Qualcomm confirmed the AWS deal is baked into its $15 billion FY29 data center revenue target, which should remove doubt about hitting that number; investor relations confirmed this despite @bubbleboi's objection. Qualcomm remains an execution beneficiary, with its data center value moving toward the upside case. x.com x.com x.comÂ
