Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The broad AI trade is among the most undervalued markets in years on a growth-adjusted basis because demand for intelligence keeps rising. Usage of open-weight and closed frontier models keeps climbing, while GPU rental prices are up around 80% this year despite exploding supply. Nvidia, AMD and SpaceX share this demand bet as long as both lines keep rising. x.com 

Nvidia faces risks on both sides of the AI cycle. Vendor financing is a concern at the center of the buildout: strong AI sentiment brings competition, while weaker sentiment brings a slowdown. That makes it the largest holding of greatest concern. x.com 

US chip stocks could gain over the next two weeks because Trump's China visit may lift years of US restrictions on high-end chip sales, equipment and technology to China. Jensen Huang joining the trip mid-way points to that, with Nvidia's share of China's high-end chip market near zero and Korean chipmakers also out of China. The US may use chip relaxation as leverage in talks over China's rare-earth export controls, within more than $250 billion of business and investment deals signed. x.com 

Strong AI demand and hyperscaler spending make the selloff a mid-cycle correction despite neocloud financing stress. Widening CCC spreads expose leveraged firms to higher borrowing costs; US competition with China supports AI buildout. The base case is a bottom in roughly 5-7 days, then stabilization and eventually a broader reversal, though some projects may fail and valuations compress. IREN, Cipher, Nebius, Applied Digital, Micron, AMD, ASML and Intel are worth gradually accumulating. x.com 

Semiconductors such as Nvidia and AMD are the last part of the market yet to fall significantly, and the US attack on Iran gives China some justification to attack Taiwan. That scenario is not a 0% chance, with China surrounding Taiwan with 26 warplanes and 7 warships, per @GlobalIJournal. x.com 

Uncertain AI-capex profits and higher oil costs from Iran still threaten US stocks. The SPCX-Nvidia deal brought much-needed overnight inflows to chips and is shifting sentiment, but tech's waterfall decline will not heal with a sharp V-bottom. Be prepared for a big fade. x.com 

SpaceX's beat has relit the AI trade and given semiconductors a fresh catalyst. Chips led Wednesday's close, with AMD, Nvidia, Micron, Marvell and Broadcom all up, but SMH is still below its 21-day average near 594. It needs to hold 536 and reclaim 562 before buyers regain control; 594 is the next test. x.com  x.com 

Nvidia and AMD could suffer tremendously from new US export controls targeting Chinese firms' operations in Southeast Asia. Per the quoted report, the Commerce Department will require licenses for advanced chips sold to entities headquartered in China even when located elsewhere, closing a loophole that may have let Nvidia's Rubin and Blackwell and AMD's MI350X reach Chinese AI firms' subsidiaries in places like Malaysia. One industry source estimated hundreds of thousands were exported. x.com 

These ten companies span every layer of AI capex, which Goldman sees surging to $1.2 trillion in 2027, so each should make money. Credo, Broadcom, Micron, Nvidia, TSMC, AMD and Amkor cover connectivity, custom chips, memory, GPUs, foundry and packaging; Broadcom expects AI revenue of about $115B in fiscal 2027. Vistra supplies power under 20-year nuclear contracts. IREN and Nebius rent AI compute, with Nebius targeting $7-9B run-rate revenue by year end. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more