Audit The Herd
CPA, Corporate Finance Professional
Semiconductors such as Nvidia and AMD are the last part of the market yet to fall significantly, and the US attack on Iran gives China some justification to attack Taiwan. That scenario is not a 0% chance, with China surrounding Taiwan with 26 warplanes and 7 warships, per @GlobalIJournal. x.comÂ
Uncertain AI-capex profits and higher oil costs from Iran still threaten US stocks. The SPCX-Nvidia deal brought much-needed overnight inflows to chips and is shifting sentiment, but tech's waterfall decline will not heal with a sharp V-bottom. Be prepared for a big fade. x.comÂ
Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com x.com x.comÂ
The semiconductor sector's bloat makes selectivity important. Nvidia, TSMC and ASML are among the best businesses still worth owning, but not every name will recover from this month's selloff. Chasing unprofitable, highly leveraged small caps should be a lesson from the selloff. x.comÂ
Financing risk makes AI-linked growth stocks unattractive to add here. Much of the money reaching suppliers such as Nvidia and Micron is financed, so harder funding would limit spending on chips, compute and memory. The buildout is not over, but stock prices could remain suppressed until it slows. A significant drawdown would make adding appealing; for many high-beta names with weak fundamentals and balance sheets, the highs look to be in. x.comÂ
A rotation into semiconductors has started as money leaves hot software names. Chip stocks outside Nvidia held up and diverged from the Nasdaq-100, which is making lows because of Nvidia; Micron and AMD recovered sharply, and CoreWeave and Super Micro helped after hours. Soft CPI should support a gap up. Nvidia has to lag for the other semis to run. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Semiconductor leaders look better placed than high-beta stocks with poor company models. TSMC, ASML, Nvidia and memory should lead the sector and belong in the buy basket, with Broadcom not far behind. The CPU basket is only a hold: much of its upside was priced in during Intel and AMD's run. x.comÂ
SpaceX's beat has relit the AI trade and given semiconductors a fresh catalyst. Chips led Wednesday's close, with AMD, Nvidia, Micron, Marvell and Broadcom all up, but SMH is still below its 21-day average near 594. It needs to hold 536 and reclaim 562 before buyers regain control; 594 is the next test. x.com x.comÂ
Amkor carries higher conviction than Nvidia because it holds up under both Taiwan and competition risk. If a naval blockade or invasion of Taiwan hits semis, Amkor should rise, as Intel would. If Taiwan doesn't happen in the next couple of years, Amkor should pick up significant advanced-packaging business in Arizona by 2029. Competition matters mostly as a narrative weighing on shares; Amkor does well if Nvidia does, and likely regardless. x.comÂ
US chip stocks could gain over the next two weeks because Trump's China visit may lift years of US restrictions on high-end chip sales, equipment and technology to China. Jensen Huang joining the trip mid-way points to that, with Nvidia's share of China's high-end chip market near zero and Korean chipmakers also out of China. The US may use chip relaxation as leverage in talks over China's rare-earth export controls, within more than $250 billion of business and investment deals signed. x.comÂ
Taiwan Semiconductor manufactures chips for competing AI designers, so its upside does not depend on which designer wins. Nearly every AI chip comes from the same fabs; Nvidia, AMD and custom-silicon competition all feed that business. The risk is that the whole AI race slows: 68% of revenue is tied to high-performance computing. x.comÂ
