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Crypto Trader, Bitcoin Macro Analysis & Charts
Strategy's real risk is STRC permanently losing its $100 anchor, not bitcoin falling, because that makes its capital exponentially more expensive. STRC near $60 would signal investors demanding yields near 19%, and annual funding costs could approach $2B against about $1.4B of cash reserves as access to fresh capital deteriorates. Strategy would then have to sell large amounts of bitcoin at a loss to fund debt and dividends, testing whether bitcoin can absorb that pressure. x.comÂ
Strategy is running the biggest Ponzi scheme in modern history, premised on bitcoin rising forever, and Saylor won't get away with it. As @coffeebreak_YT notes, Saylor wants to sell STRC to buy bitcoin while paying STRC's 11.5% dividends by selling bitcoin, which will not work long-term. x.comÂ
Strategy's funding machine is breaking as its STRC preferred trades far below $100 par, threatening a death spiral. STRC pays about 11.5% and lets Strategy buy bitcoin only while near par; at a new low of about $82, issuance stops, yet cash dividends are still due. Cash has fallen from $2.25 billion to about $1 billion, and Strategy sold 32 BTC in late May to cover STRC obligations. Higher payouts mean more bitcoin sales, which hit bitcoin's price and confidence, pushing STRC lower again. x.comÂ
Strategy's STRC preferred was never as safe as a money market fund, and if both STRC and MSTR share dilution fail, the only way left to pay dividends is selling bitcoin. Believing STRC would stay at par forever while paying a junk-like 12% was financial illiteracy; per @betirement, it has now fallen below $90. Strategy says its bitcoin reserve gives it 32 years of dividend coverage. x.com x.comÂ
Raising Strategy's STRC rate could lock common shareholders into costly dividends after sentiment improves. STRC is six times SATA's size; each 0.5-point hike costs $43m a year on existing shares, without evidence it can sustain par. Buybacks have pushed STRC toward par; as Bitcoin rises and daily payouts start, it will return to par at 12%. Reversing a hike without serious backlash may be difficult for 5-10 years. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Strategy may be forced to sell bitcoin because its STRC preferred has hit a record low of $83, well under its $100 par. That discount says the dividend is too low, and raising it means more cash out the door. Strategy has funded that cash by selling MSTR shares, but the premium that made dilution easy is almost gone, leaving bitcoin sales as the remaining option. x.comÂ
Falling STRC prices raise its effective yield, increasing Strategy's dividend burden and tying the instrument to occasional Bitcoin sales despite its large holdings. Saylor is promoting STRC's 12% yield paid twice a month, and the higher it is, the faster Strategy sells Bitcoin. Replying to @Blockcastcc's report of Peter Schiff's warning that Bitcoin could fall toward $20,000, Strategy should sell everything and repay: preferred holders can be paid, but common holders would be wiped out. x.com … Show more
Daily STRC dividends advance Strategy's Bitcoin financing machine. Shareholders approved the payments, and Strategy's Bitcoin printer is unstoppable. x.comÂ
Strategy is turning to selling bitcoin to rescue its troubled STRC preferred program, which points toward bankruptcy. It launched a Bitcoin Monetization Program that lets it sell BTC to fund operations, per Watcher.Guru, and the news sent the preferred up 10%, meaning it would sell bitcoin low to support STRC high. x.comÂ
Strategy is no longer just a levered bitcoin proxy but a credit engine that must dilute common equity and sell bitcoin to keep its capital structure afloat. It sold bitcoin below its average cost basis to buy back STRC preferred shares, breaking its "never sell" thesis. It also raised $653M through at-the-market common stock sales toward a $4.65B cash reserve, prioritizing preferred dividend coverage over buying bitcoin, which exposes the rising cost of its preferred stack. x.comÂ
Strategy offers prime risk/reward here unless Bitcoin keeps moving deeply lower. Saylor affirmed the company can pay its dividend for over two years and will prioritize always holding 12 months of dividend cash, alongside a new Digital Credit Capital Framework. Last week's FUD over Saylor, Strategy and its STRC preferred produced a strong candle below the prior low into a key demand area from the previous cycle, yet the stock kept its weekly bullish divergence. x.comÂ
Heavy inflows could lift Strive's mNAV above Strategy's for periods because they have more impact on the smaller company. Strive could do even better than 6x versus Strategy's 4x, as investors seek the faster Bitcoin treasury stock. x.com x.com x.comÂ
