Emperor Osmo
DeFi Research, Blockchain Metrics, Ex-Osmosis/Artemis
Bitcoin is likely to break through the $81,300 level it last reached in May rather than roll over again. Massive inflows across ETFs compounded this week's move, and unlike May's leverage-driven, bitcoin-only rally, Bitfinex notes that the broader market is moving, with large-cap altcoins up over 12%. x.comÂ
Bitcoin is at or very near a local bottom, as independent metrics flash cycle-low signals. For the first time this cycle, more than half of supply is underwater, 10.5M BTC in loss versus 9.8M in profit, a crossover seen at every major cycle bottom. Long-term holder SOPR shows capitulation at bottom-5th-percentile rates, and the Mayer Multiple is touching 0.8. If ETFs, treasuries and sovereigns haven't raised the floor, on-chain models put it around $46-54K, limiting downside. x.comÂ
Bitcoin ETF demand has snapped back despite continued Ethereum ETF outflows. Bitcoin ETFs drew $301.2M last week after $1.77B left the two products over the prior two weeks; Ethereum ETFs lost $220.7M. Bitcoin rose one year after all four previous US midterms, with the next nine days away. Per @0xCryptoChan, prior recovery tops or subtops came 78-85 days after crossing the 3-6 month holder cost-basis line. Now at day 65, the next 2-3 weeks could get wild, though ETFs have changed cycle timing. … Show more
Bitcoin demand is back. Bitcoin ETFs took in $999 million in a single day, their biggest inflow day of the year. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's ETF floor may keep a continuing bear phase range-bound rather than end it. The dashboard assigns 55% to a $52-85k institutional range and 30% to a cyclical bear reaching $40-55k by Q4 2026-Q1 2027; only 9% goes to an $85-150k extension if macro conditions clear and flows revive. Bitcoin must hold about $85k into year-end or clear $100k this year before the bearish phase can be called over. x.comÂ
Bitcoin sentiment looks to be bottoming, and sentiment bottoms before price. While crypto's obituary is being written, with Saylor $9.7B underwater, Eric Trump's miner down $600M and BTC at $64k, Bitcoin and Ether spot ETFs just logged their first week of net inflows since May. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's rally is backed by real spot ETF demand, not just a short squeeze. Bitcoin ETFs took in a net $1.0B last week and roughly $2.9B over two weeks, while ether ETFs drew $820M, their best week since October 2025. x.comÂ
Bitcoin needs buyers to return as ETF demand reverses sharply: Eliteonchain reports $321.6M of inflows over October's first four trading sessions followed by $729M of outflows over the next two, including withdrawals from IBIT and FBTC. x.comÂ
Renewed buying by Michael Saylor and Tom Lee should lift Bitcoin and Ethereum again soon, with some ETF inflows as well. Their buying around the same time previously led to new highs for both, and this time should be no different. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's Coinbase Institutional withdrawals into the dip look like quiet accumulation. Whale Alert reported 648 BTC, worth about $51.9 million, moving from Coinbase Institutional to an unknown wallet, adding a different demand signal to the earlier ETF-flow case. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's rebound faces constrained upside from dealer hedging and weak US spot demand. Seventy percent of dealer gamma sits at $75,000-$82,000 ahead of Friday's $11B options expiry; the Coinbase premium had no positive days in October and an $83,000 fakeout keeps traders defensive. The Fed hold spurred relief, ETFs added $110.34M and $176M, and record US debt drives long-term accumulation. A hot PCE print would raise December hike odds and pressure Bitcoin through higher yields. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's breakout from a three-month base looks bullish, with a bull flag above the 200 EMA pointing to $82.5K in October and close to $100K by year-end. BlackRock's IBIT participated heavily in the move while the HODL ETF sold into it, a divergence worth watching to track any reversal. x.com x.comÂ
