TechStockFundamentals
Technology Investor with ~25 Years of Experience, Former Hedge Fund Manager for 10 Years
Atlassian is either dead from AI-driven changes in development or worth 2x just on a return to a normal multiple and probably 3-4x over 3-4 years, and the evidence leans to the latter. Enterprise AI coding still runs through Jira tickets, Git and testing, and users, usage, module adoption and net retention are all growing, with seat expansion rather than compression. Cloud revenue grew 29%, Rovo customers grow ARR 2x faster, and buybacks retired 4% of shares. It trades at 11x forward FCF. x.comÂ
Atlassian has been punished by narrative-driven selling rather than fundamentals, since its estimates have only gone up. Goldman Sachs and other banks pushed AI-loser baskets, pods reinforced the narrative despite tiny position sizes, and Millennium front-ran the resulting index removal, sending the stock from 140 to 56 and back in six months. Such extreme moves risk becoming reflexive, pushing companies toward layoffs or bad management decisions. x.com x.comÂ
Atlassian has broken out of a year-long downtrend on cloud and AI growth, with Q3 results up 29%, a Leader rating in Gartner's 2026 DevSecOps Magic Quadrant and Wall Street lifting targets. It is retesting the top of its descending channel as support, and heavy volume shows real accumulation. A move above $96.50 targets $119.38, then $139.70 and $157.29. x.comÂ
Atlassian won't grow beyond inflation because nearly everyone already owns its product, so its rally is simply the market bidding up software as money rotates out of semiconductors. @sv_techie notes 28% growth last quarter and 26% for fiscal 2026, but guidance of 19.7% for the next quarter and about 13% for fiscal 2027. x.comÂ
Atlassian got too cheap at 2x next-12-month revenue going into earnings and could re-rate to 4-5x, even after a 24% jump that still leaves it 85% below its highs. AI may pressure such companies, but that isn't showing up yet, and the market may be wrong that they won't adapt; some will get stronger by integrating AI. After $114, $139, the February 2025 VWAP and about 5x forward revenue, is a reasonable target. x.com x.comÂ
Atlassian is flagged as bullish with no reason given, only a ticker mention and a link. x.comÂ
Atlassian is hard to buy despite strong contracted demand, because insiders have sold so heavily. Remaining performance obligations, contracted revenue not yet recognized and a precursor to reported revenue, accelerated sharply in Q2 2026. Even so, it does not look like the best opportunity in the market. x.com x.comÂ
Software is flexing its muscles, showing AI is not killing the sector. Twilio, Atlassian, Cloudflare and JFrog all showed better-than-expected fundamental strength, setting software up for a strong session. x.com x.comÂ
Atlassian at $57-60 trades near decade lows while still growing 24%, and could reach $200+ in a few years if software becomes the next bubble after semiconductors. Its own AI agents, such as Rovo, are a plus. A replier who works in software warns that big-company contract cancellations slated for 2027 could be high, though that may already be in the price. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Atlassian looks set to fall on forced selling tied to its expected removal from the Nasdaq-100, which could be announced this Friday. Funds have flagged the risk since February, after it fell below the size needed to stay in the index, and many have pressed it short to make that self-fulfilling. Though widely known, in a market where nothing is ever priced in it could still drop 8% as index holders must sell. Management only recently became aware of it. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla looks good because its high and growing short interest tends to mark a bottom and signal trend strength. Spikes in short sale volume, and especially extended periods of heavy shorting, are more often than not bullish: the more people short, the higher it goes. x.comÂ