MP Materials is critical infrastructure for EVs and defense as the only US rare-earth mine and the only Western company with a complete mine-to-magnet supply chain. Revenue grew 49% year over year, it produced its first commercial magnets and cut off all sales to China. It has a $32M prepayment from Apple and over $2B of federal backing. x.com 

MP Materials is a safe bet as the only Western Hemisphere producer of rare earths at scale, an asset the Pentagon cannot afford to lose. A post the author shares argues Greenland's Tanbreez deposit is likely a decade away given no roads, frozen months and a uranium mining ban, while China controls about 90% of processing. Mountain Pass in California is operational today, and since July 2025 the Pentagon has treated MP as a partner rather than a vendor, effectively socializing its risk. x.com  … Show more

MP Materials' real market is the slice of rare earths China is legally locked out of, which MP owns almost by default. Buy America rules on magnets, tariffs and CFIUS wall Chinese refiners, which control 85% of refining, off US defense and OEM supply. MP runs the only operating US rare earth mine plus a magnet line, and the DoD price floor and 10-year offtake add share. At 33x EV/sales it is rich but prices a near-monopoly; the bull case is $90-100 as Fort Worth magnet revenue lands. x.com 

MP Materials' domestic rare-earth magnets must and will succeed as demand from the military, drones, space, robots, EVs and data centers grows tremendously and Chinese magnets are shut out; Trump won't take a single Chinese magnet, even if offered. The weekly chart still holds a flag tracked for almost a year, above the 30-week EMA, with RSI breaking out and MACD and slow stochastics turning up. x.com  x.com 

Neo Performance Materials appears unwilling to fund its magnet expansion without output price floors. Input bottlenecks add risk, and no EU arrangement comparable to MP Materials' is in sight. The EU Strategic Project designation for Silmet 2.0 is positive but not tremendously consequential. Neo's current hafnium and gallium production looks roughly fairly valued, with possible expansions not priced in; there is no action to take for now. x.com  x.com  x.com 

MP Materials is one of the strongest US pure plays on rare earth magnets, which power the high-performance actuators humanoid robots need for precise movement. If humanoids scale globally over the next decade, demand for these materials could explode. Per @aleabitoreddit, China holds the cards over humanoid mass production, so the US needs to fund sovereign rare earth supply chains. x.com  x.com 

MP Materials looks like a no-brainer at current prices because the US has no choice but to back domestic rare earth suppliers. Rare earth demand should at least double in five years, and China could cut off supply at any time, making MP a national-security hedge with a big government stake. About $1.15B of 2030 EBIT at 30x implies roughly $200 a share. With customers in chips, robotics, drones and defense, MP deserves a premium to Freeport and BHP, and it is 2+ years ahead of USA Rare Earth. … Show more

Aeluma, USA Rare Earth and MP Materials have the same government-backed setup that drove Intel up 600% after the US took a 10% stake, giving each 7–10x potential. Aeluma signed a letter of intent for CHIPS Act money in exchange for a government equity stake. Commerce is backing pre-revenue USA Rare Earth with $1.6B for up to 16% as it builds America's only heavy rare earth mine-to-magnet chain. The Pentagon owns 15% of MP Materials, the only fully integrated US rare earth producer. x.com  x.com 

Evolution Metals' magnet expansion and defense sourcing ban support its bullish case, though financing weighs on shares. November's 13 ULVAC machines could lift Pohang capacity from ~1,000 to ~10,000 tons/year. 2026 revenue guidance rose to $10–11M, with $400–460M reaffirmed for 2027. China controls most NdFeB supply; DFARS bans Chinese defense-magnet sourcing from January 2027. Yorkville notes convert at 5% below the lowest daily VWAP; fixing cash needs could lift that lid. x.com 

Rare earth magnets are the next big investment theme as the White House and Pentagon fund a US supply chain outside China, backing a bench of winners. The Pentagon took a 15% stake in MP Materials with a decade-long magnet price floor and committed about $258M to Lynas' Texas plant. USA Rare Earth is building a mine-to-magnet chain, Energy Fuels adds rare earth separation to its uranium mill, NioCorp has a Lockheed deal, IperionX has $47.1M of Pentagon backing, and Ramaco mines them from coal. … Show more