Sean D. Emory
Founding Partner & CIO of Avory & Co., Avory Foundational ETF (AVRY)
US healthcare stocks look set to rise because insiders are buying at an extreme rate relative to selling. The corporate insider buy/sell ratio for the healthcare sector has spiked to its highest reading in data back to 2010, levels last seen in early 2020. After such readings, the sector rose 88% of the time over two months, 91% over six and 100% over twelve, with median returns of 9.14% at six months and 12.46% at twelve. x.comÂ
Healthcare looks attractive as volatility has eased in recent weeks while inflows stay steady. Merck is the best-looking pharma play, pharma and biotech are favored, and the broad healthcare sector covers all the bases. x.comÂ
The healthcare sector, including Moderna, AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson and Merck, looks ready to push higher off Moderna's cancer news. x.comÂ
US healthcare and biotech stocks are coming under distribution as the attack on healthcare returns. Per Dr Alex Kenton, the No Surprises Act has knocked millions of people off insurance rolls, hurting hospitals, and a new Justice Department investigation targets Cigna, UnitedHealth and CVS over allegedly using Claritev to fix prices. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth and healthcare look set to outperform through year-end, helped by midterm-year seasonality and defensive appeal. Over the last 20 years healthcare has generally done well from July through December in midterm election years. If the S&P 500 rolls into a bear market, UnitedHealth could outperform as investors rotate into defensive sectors. The bull case holds if medical cost ratios fall from AI and GLP-1 use and institutions rotate back into healthcare. x.comÂ
Healthcare is the clearest place money is moving, and UnitedHealth is the preferred name here. It beat earnings and raised its 2026 profit forecast. x.comÂ
Healthcare's rotation from laggard to leader is not done, with the sector coming out of multiyear bases. It has been the most consistent sector in midterm election years for over 30 years, winning 80% of the time in the back half, and 22 healthcare companies beat the S&P 500 in 75%+ of midterms from 1994 to 2022. Focus names range from mature AbbVie, Lilly and UnitedHealth to large caps like Vertex and Amgen and riskier mid caps like Hims & Hers and Oscar Health. Start trimming from November. … Show more
UnitedHealth's earnings visibility, unusually high dividend yield and resumed buybacks make paying under 16x forward earnings not look terrible. Still reasonably confident it is a good place to hide for long-term capital: Hemsley keeps clearing the bar, and UnitedHealth has beaten and raised guidance for three straight quarters. Further derisking remains a risk. x.com x.com x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's potential earnings recovery and margin expansion offer a fundamental case for its emerging Stage 2 uptrend. EPS is expected to grow 53%, from $20.47 in 2026 to $31.31 by 2029, while revenue is projected to rise from $448B to $511B; a weekly bull flag has broken out. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth collects ever-rising US healthcare spending, and its stock has stopped falling. Family plan costs rose 249% in two decades toward $24,000, US spending nears $10,000 a person, and the over-65 population is set to double to two billion by 2050. After earnings fell 59% and 69% in back-to-back quarters and the stock dropped from 606 to 248, it based near 250 for a year, a Weinstein Stage 1, then reclaimed its moving average and pushed above 400. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
UnitedHealth should outperform through year-end on midterm-year seasonality and as a defensive leader if markets weaken. Over the last 20 years, healthcare has generally done well from July through December in midterm years, and if the S&P 500 rolls into a bear market, investors should rotate into defensives led by UNH. The bull case also rests on AI and GLP-1 use lowering the medical cost ratio and institutions returning to healthcare. The war has made everything more volatile. x.comÂ
