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Bill 'Latency Lord' Brennan

Fundamental Growth Investor, B2B/Sector Leaders & Picks-and-Shovels

10 Sep, 15:04Latest

Booking Holdings is a short idea because its growth looks driven by fraud, and the problem is structural. Its rewards program is a scam that barely pays out, it blocks accounts without reason, and customer service is AI bots with no human contact. Evidence exists, though no one is investigating it yet. The company is trash hiding in plain sight, even as @jimmyinvest notes the stock is back at 16x earnings after Booking lost its fight against the EU veto of its eTraveli acquisition. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

BKNG

15 Jun, 05:56

Booking Holdings risks seeing its numbers suffer unless it quickly fixes a terrible customer experience around its credit card rewards. After four months unable to use rewards, seven attempts still have not reached a human, only the same bot reply that runs its Twitter account. Many others report similar problems, which is rare among serious credit cards, and suggests either very poor AI support or rewards being withheld. x.com

BKNG

Masa’s Son

Non-Consensus Long/Short Technology Investor

18 Sep

EXPE

BKNG

Booking Holdings and Expedia look like a secular short with capped upside as their take rates come under pressure, though probably not within the next 60 days. As with Salesforce, the argument that they could simply run headless will be raised, and the market knows it from SaaS. Take rates should compress first where barriers to bringing inventory online are lowest; the platforms would then respond with aggressive marketing and margin dilution, extending their growth runway somewhat. x.com

Burak Finance

Head of Analytics, Growth Investor, PLTR/NBIS/RKLB

29 Sep

BKNG

AI agents threaten Booking Holdings' margins. That view could change if the company adapts, pivots and proves otherwise. x.com

Techquity

Technology Investor, Fundamental Research

28 Oct

BKNG

Booking Holdings looks ridiculously cheap against its own history, and its business and moat inspire much more confidence than Uber's even with AI risk. Its P/FCF is 11.94, versus a ten-year median of 18.85. x.com

TechStockFundamentals

Technology Investor with ~25 Years of Experience, Former Hedge Fund Manager for 10 Years

22 Sep

BKNG

Booking Holdings faces a valid long-term bear case as AI agents could take a share of the 13-18% online travel take rate. Testing Meta's Muse and Instinct for a hotel search showed them drawing on Booking and Expedia inventory for now, but agents could eventually build direct ties with long-tail hotels, better reviews and pre- and post-booking service at lower fees. OTAs' own agents look mediocre and lack users' context. At 13x 2027 EPS it tempts as a contrarian long, but looks too tough. x.com … Show more

Say No To Trading

Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management

25 Sep

EXPE

Expedia is unattractive from both an investment and a user perspective, with offerings less proprietary than Booking Holdings'. x.com

Value Investigator

Quality-Growth Investor, Fundamental Research & Portfolio Strategy

27 Apr

BKNG

AI price-comparison risk to Booking Holdings is a big nothing burger, since Google and Google Maps have offered comparisons for ages. Personal checks find Google showing no better price than Booking about two-thirds of the time, and saving a few euros is not worth another spam account or the lost time. Having all bookings in one app is also far more convenient than digging through a messy Gmail inbox. x.com x.com

DYOptions

Options Trader

28 Apr

BKNG

Booking Holdings' stock split is a topping sign, as stock splits generally are. A split attracts retail flow that minimizes damage on down days, such as one that would otherwise have been about a $300 drop. x.com x.com

Deep Value Investing

Value Investor, Long-Term Compounding

4 Oct

BKNG

Booking Holdings faces a big risk from Meta's Muse and other AI agents that will find bookings without a middleman. x.com

Waterworld Capital

Public Markets Commentary

21 May

BKNG

Booking Holdings' valuation is quite clearly attractive, though AI agents may roam around and book hotels directly for people. Google I/O raised concerns about most internet names, leaving it unclear whether agentic AI will really hurt Booking. x.com x.com

SV_Techie

Entrepreneur & Startup Mentor, Technology Investor

4 May

BKNG

Booking Holdings' growth slowdown will accelerate as tech layoffs hit travel demand. Travel is already expensive and most spending comes from top earners, whom tech layoffs could affect. @Stock_Opine argues the Q2 guidance of 2-4% constant-currency growth mainly reflects March cancellations and that the underlying fundamentals are accelerating. x.com x.com

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