Personal AI agents such as Muse and Grokbot look set to make Expedia the next big loser as consumer and business engagement moves to new channels. Intermediary stocks such as EverQuote sold off and Expedia came under some pressure earlier in the day, but the next level appears to be Expedia, some insurance brokers and then phone communication systems such as RingCentral and Five9, which seem at the top of the losers. x.com 

AI agents threaten Booking Holdings' margins. That view could change if the company adapts, pivots and proves otherwise. x.com 

Expedia is underrated next to Booking and Airbnb, yet still a solid way into the travel industry. It owns a strong portfolio of brands such as Expedia and Vrbo covering every travel need, is merging onto a single tech platform that cuts costs and speeds its AI rollout, and sells its technology to banks, airlines and other businesses for steady, high-margin B2B revenue. x.com 

Booking Holdings and Expedia look like a secular short with capped upside as their take rates come under pressure, though probably not within the next 60 days. As with Salesforce, the argument that they could simply run headless will be raised, and the market knows it from SaaS. Take rates should compress first where barriers to bringing inventory online are lowest; the platforms would then respond with aggressive marketing and margin dilution, extending their growth runway somewhat. x.com 

Booking Holdings looks ridiculously cheap against its own history, and its business and moat inspire much more confidence than Uber's even with AI risk. Its P/FCF is 11.94, versus a ten-year median of 18.85. x.com 

Adobe and Expedia belong on a short list of businesses AI is going to disrupt, a basket better shorted to hedge long exposure than bought as falling knives. Per Barchart, Adobe has fallen to its lowest price in more than eight years, over 70% below its 2021 high, and @AtlasShrug1 finds it hard to see how Booking and Expedia escape AI travel agents. There are many better places to allocate capital. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AI price-comparison risk to Booking Holdings is a big nothing burger, since Google and Google Maps have offered comparisons for ages. Personal checks find Google showing no better price than Booking about two-thirds of the time, and saving a few euros is not worth another spam account or the lost time. Having all bookings in one app is also far more convenient than digging through a messy Gmail inbox. x.com  x.com 

AI agents may be turning deflationary, which could disrupt Booking, Expedia and other businesses with undifferentiated supply and low switching costs as agents drive industry-wide GMV deflation through price discovery. Per @JosephDevoy, Meta's Muse found and bought an auto policy saving $3,500 a year in minutes. Agents let anyone compare all inventory and book instantly, so friction is falling fast. Per HOTREC, most European hotels already have booking engines that agents could reach directly. … Show more

Booking Holdings faces a valid long-term bear case as AI agents could take a share of the 13-18% online travel take rate. Testing Meta's Muse and Instinct for a hotel search showed them drawing on Booking and Expedia inventory for now, but agents could eventually build direct ties with long-tail hotels, better reviews and pre- and post-booking service at lower fees. OTAs' own agents look mediocre and lack users' context. At 13x 2027 EPS it tempts as a contrarian long, but looks too tough. x.com  … Show more

As consumer AI agents become the new battleground, booking aggregators Booking and Expedia look like clear losers, facing margin compression and more comparison shopping. Ad platforms such as Meta should thrive on entertainment-first ad consumption, while businesses that depend on humans using their own interfaces face pressure. OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to launch consumer agents to compete with Muse and Grok Bot in the coming weeks. x.com