The Great Mattsby
Chartist, Gann Theory, Stocks/Crypto/FX
Ferrari is less attractive to own now because its Luce numbers look increasingly underwhelming and prices are already being cut. The company and brand remain appealing, but the money could work better elsewhere. x.com
Ferrari isn't worth owning even after getting cheap, because of long-standing brand problems. Like Corvettes, it isn't embraced by younger generations versus other exotic brands; it refuses to move to non-animal-skin interiors beyond the Purosangue SUV's Alcantara; and, as with Porsche, its SUV is cheapening the brand, with Ferrari merchandise even turning up in an outlet-mall shoe store. The Luce may be just long-term noise. x.com
Ferrari's 41% drop from its high looks out of line with its fundamentals: net margin only slipped from 23% to 21%, and it is a beautiful company trading at a P/E barely above the market's. A fall this large should reflect fundamentals rather than technicals, beyond the broad market decline, so either the selloff is overdone or something is being missed. x.com x.com
Ferrari is overvalued for such low growth. x.com
Ferrari's long-awaited electric car exposes a broken pricing model that ignores the EV industry's deeper issues: it costs $640,000, while Xiaomi and Tesla sell EVs for about $38,000, and Tesla has also solved full self-driving. The stock's 7% drop on the launch is justified. x.com
Ferrari's buyers are rich people, and rich people never go through a recession. The stock just hit its highest level since November 2025. x.com
Ferrari's incompetence in Formula 1 is one reason not to own its stock. x.com
Ferrari's first electric vehicle, the Ferrari Luce, received horrible feedback, and the stock has now broken a clean seven-year uptrend. One wrong launch can ruin an entire company. x.com
Ferrari's selloff over an unpopular new design is overblown because its value rests on brand and scarcity, not looks. It is an irreplaceable business. The Middle East, over a third of its business, should return once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, adding to demand from Korea, Taiwan, China and India, though Ferrari will still ship only about 16,000-17,000 cars this year by design. x.com
Ferrari remains expensive because bulls ignored its capitalized R&D, overstating free cash flow. At the peak the stock traded near a 1% FCF yield, and dividends plus buybacks only ever covered about half the quoted FCF, leaving some €400M unexplained. Even at about 25x FCF it would be only cheap-ish when TransDigm or Moody's, growing 6-8% for years, trade at 25-30x, and Ferrari is still materially above that despite a 43% drawdown, its largest ever, per @Fiscal_ai. x.com x.com x.com