Thierry from arvy
CFA, Co-Founder & CIO of arvy, Quality Investing
Bitcoin hedges nothing; its price is driven only by cheap money, FOMO and narrative, so a fall to $37k is in the cards, followed by $250k and eventually zero. The recent slide from $74,000 to $67,500 on no real news fits an exit-liquidity rotation, as SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and Google raise over $350 billion in equity and holders sell the most liquid risk asset to take part. x.comÂ
One thesis that fits bitcoin's drop is that it has become exit liquidity for the largest equity issuance wave since 2000. Over $350B of raises by SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and Google must be funded from existing portfolios, and bitcoin is the most liquid risk-on asset to sell without tax events on long-held stocks. If treasuries, funds and whales are even partially rotating, no news is needed to explain its fall from $74,000 to $67,500 in 48 hours. This is not a long-term bearish call. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin enters a liquidation phase this week that should dump it below $75K into major fair value gaps. A liquidity cluster is building at $87K and a sweep of it is a matter of time. The projected path runs $85K, $75K and $70K, then a long confirmation and a move to $100K. The best opportunity to buy Bitcoin should come this month. x.comÂ
The current crypto-market shock was needed to form a bottom. Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000 again. x.comÂ
The US-Iran war, inflation fears and rising bond yields make Bitcoin's run to $100,000 much harder. A target that once seemed achievable now looks impossible in 2026. x.com x.comÂ
High interest rates curb leveraged Bitcoin speculation while new investment opportunities compete for limited capital. AI companies are taking on heavy debt, SpaceX recently went public and Anthropic is preparing an IPO; many beaten-down AI stocks may offer a better chance of doubling than Bitcoin. With Bitcoin below $80,000, $70,000 is more likely than $90,000 from here. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's past midterm-election selloffs each marked a cycle bottom, making Tuesday's election fear a buying opportunity at $78K-$75K. The declines were about 50% in both 2014 and 2018, then 25% in 2022; this time a drop of more than 10% looks unlikely as the drawdowns have moderated. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's valuation looks stretched relative to network use, raising the risk of selling pressure. Its market value has risen faster than active addresses, lifting the NVM ratio while address activity has not kept up with price. This is a valuation warning, not a definite top like 2021 or 2025, nor a signal that price must fall immediately; it could keep rising with NVM high. x.comÂ
Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.comÂ
Kevin Warsh's very dovish statement supports the Bitcoin pivot-low scenario and a move higher this quarter. In this favored scenario, Bitcoin makes another higher high in the $90k-$100k area, the stock market reaches new all-time highs, and altcoins follow suit. x.comÂ
Bitcoin lacks a clear near-term catalyst for a meaningful rebound after a terrible 2026: instead of reclaiming $100K as many expected, it is struggling near $60K, about 33% below where it began the year. That could change. x.comÂ
