SpaceX shares will probably drop into the $60s after the lockup expires, so now is not the right time to get involved. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX remains well above the range for building a serious long-term position, even though it will eventually be a stock long-term investors wish they had owned earlier. Young IPOs need time for price discovery, and the price paid still matters despite strong fundamentals: revenue up 92%, Starlink subscribers up 101%, AI revenue up 248%, adjusted EBITDA up 191% and about $100B of cash and securities. x.com 

SpaceX shares did not implode when the first lockup period ended, which supports staying bullish and ignoring the media telling investors what to do, though the call could still prove wrong. x.com  x.com 

SPCX still looks too pricey after its post-IPO pullback. IPO hype pushed it to 150x 2026 EV/EBITDA, and the pullback has only brought that down to 130x. By comparison, Nvidia trades at 21x next-twelve-month EPS for 88% expected growth in FY27, a 0.25x PEG. x.com 

SpaceX's valuation looks unsustainable when measured in bitcoin. It is currently worth 36.3 million BTC, while only 21 million bitcoin will ever exist. x.com 

EchoStar offers right-tail exposure to SpaceX with significant downside protection, anchored by the stick value of its hard spectrum assets. x.com 

Raymond James' $800 price target on SpaceX looks lofty, since it would imply a $10 trillion market cap. x.com 

SpaceX's unlock supply takes 2-3 months to absorb, setting up a December accumulation bottom. About 320M shares unlock Oct 24, up to 1.3B more after Q3 earnings, and a final tranche Dec 8. The float, not the business, is the problem: Q2 revenue grew 92% and Starlink has 12M subscribers. The bottom zone is $80-$90; $120-$140 bounces are traps. A $140 reclaim confirms a turn toward $300-$320 by April 2027; a daily close above $180 invalidates the setup. x.com 

SpaceX has broken out above its prior $150 resistance zone and is continuing higher as whale accumulation surges to 85.18%. The earlier volatility hole and descending ribbon marked the cycle bottom amid retail fear. Momentum bars at $147, $151 and $161 should act as support, with resistance at $176 and $190. x.com 

SpaceX might be one of the best IPOs to short in history: it listed into one busted theme at the end of its bull market, space, and another near bust, AI, having latched onto AI just before the IPO after years as a space company. It is super liquid with a huge market cap and a big following that ignores technicals and will hold all the way down in a bear market. x.com  x.com