Oliver | MMMT Wealth
Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
SpaceX remains well above the range for building a serious long-term position, even though it will eventually be a stock long-term investors wish they had owned earlier. Young IPOs need time for price discovery, and the price paid still matters despite strong fundamentals: revenue up 92%, Starlink subscribers up 101%, AI revenue up 248%, adjusted EBITDA up 191% and about $100B of cash and securities. x.comÂ
Raymond James' $800 price target on SpaceX looks lofty, since it would imply a $10 trillion market cap. x.comÂ
Virgin Galactic is vaporware that has burned retail investors, while SpaceX is a much better space play. Investors selling Virgin Galactic are not mistaking it for SpaceX; they are recognizing that difference. x.comÂ
SpaceX's valuation looks unsustainable when measured in bitcoin. It is currently worth 36.3 million BTC, while only 21 million bitcoin will ever exist. x.comÂ
SpaceX's public shares face a wave of supply, with roughly 95% of the company still locked up after the stock broke $135. Between now and December the tradeable float multiplies 8-10x, so patience pays. x.comÂ
EchoStar offers right-tail exposure to SpaceX with significant downside protection, anchored by the stick value of its hard spectrum assets. x.comÂ
SpaceX shares will probably drop into the $60s after the lockup expires, so now is not the right time to get involved. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's stock is the most egregious case yet of retail investors being manipulated into serving as exit liquidity for Wall Street. Its fall was expected by everyone, even if the timing was not. x.comÂ
SpaceX has broken out above its prior $150 resistance zone and is continuing higher as whale accumulation surges to 85.18%. The earlier volatility hole and descending ribbon marked the cycle bottom amid retail fear. Momentum bars at $147, $151 and $161 should act as support, with resistance at $176 and $190. x.comÂ
SpaceX might be one of the best IPOs to short in history: it listed into one busted theme at the end of its bull market, space, and another near bust, AI, having latched onto AI just before the IPO after years as a space company. It is super liquid with a huge market cap and a big following that ignores technicals and will hold all the way down in a bear market. x.com x.comÂ