Jake Ruth
Product Engineer at PostHog, Co-Founder of Stock Unlock (YC W22), AI Engineering
Raymond James' $800 price target on SpaceX looks lofty, since it would imply a $10 trillion market cap. x.com
SPCX still looks too pricey after its post-IPO pullback. IPO hype pushed it to 150x 2026 EV/EBITDA, and the pullback has only brought that down to 130x. By comparison, Nvidia trades at 21x next-twelve-month EPS for 88% expected growth in FY27, a 0.25x PEG. x.com
Virgin Galactic is vaporware that has burned retail investors, while SpaceX is a much better space play. Investors selling Virgin Galactic are not mistaking it for SpaceX; they are recognizing that difference. x.com
SpaceX might be one of the best IPOs to short in history: it listed into one busted theme at the end of its bull market, space, and another near bust, AI, having latched onto AI just before the IPO after years as a space company. It is super liquid with a huge market cap and a big following that ignores technicals and will hold all the way down in a bear market. x.com x.com
SpaceX shares will probably drop into the $60s after the lockup expires, so now is not the right time to get involved. x.com x.com
EchoStar offers right-tail exposure to SpaceX with significant downside protection, anchored by the stick value of its hard spectrum assets. x.com
SpaceX remains well above the range for building a serious long-term position, even though it will eventually be a stock long-term investors wish they had owned earlier. Young IPOs need time for price discovery, and the price paid still matters despite strong fundamentals: revenue up 92%, Starlink subscribers up 101%, AI revenue up 248%, adjusted EBITDA up 191% and about $100B of cash and securities. x.com
SpaceX's valuation looks unsustainable when measured in bitcoin. It is currently worth 36.3 million BTC, while only 21 million bitcoin will ever exist. x.com
With 208 million SpaceX shares sold short, it is a good day to remind everyone of the bullish case. x.com
Individual space stocks outside SpaceX look hard to get excited about, because a huge share of the sector's liquidity and attention increasingly seems set to concentrate in SpaceX alone. That reshapes the risk/reward of owning AST SpaceMobile, BlackSky, Firefly, Lumen, Redwire, Rocket Lab and Satellogic. x.com